MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/6: Will the Cubs be Burnes’ Next Victims?
Jeff Hanisch, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Corbin Burnes
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 6 slate of baseball games with his model below, including Cubs-Brewers and Marlins-Braves.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
What a wild and wacky affair we had in Chicago yesterday, for the White Sox home opener against the Mariners.
The White Sox jumped out to a 6-1 lead, behind two fielding errors and a throwing error from Mariners shortstop Tim Beckham, all in the bottom of the first inning, before Mallex Smith blocked (but didn’t catch) a potential grand slam from Yoan Moncada.
Reynaldo Lopez and the White Sox bullpen surrendered seven unanswered runs before their offense rallied for three runs in the seventh, and one run in the eight-inning, of a 10-8 victory.
Yoan Moncada’s two-run single proved to be the winning blow:
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
I finally lost not one, but two favorite bets yesterday, as both the Marlins and the Athletics fell in their respective games. Those bets are now 8-2.
However, the Marlins were the only team that I gave out prematurely, and the only one that potentially saw negative Closing Line Value (CLV).
I took Miami at +140 (and again at +150), but the line closed at +149. I played it again at +150, after seeing some positive market signals, and that game turned on one poor inning by Marlins starter Pablo Lopez.
I essentially took the Diamondbacks and White Sox at the closing number.
I was on the right side of the Athletics line, at +160. It moved 15 cents, to +145, the lowest number that I said I would play it. The contest turned into a 1-run, coin-flip game, with roughly the same number of base runners for each team.
You’re not going to win every coin flip, not even close, but if you’re getting plus money on all of them, you’ll be a winner in the long term.
On Deck for Saturday 4/6
All odds as of early Saturday morning.
The model recommends five full-game moneylines for Friday:
The Giants were flagged for the second straight day against the Tampa Bay Rays. I continue to avoid stepping in front of the buzzsaw that is the 2019 Rays.
They are 6-2, and with the Yankees (3-4) and Red Sox (2-7) absolutely reeling, Tampa Bay is in a good position to stay in the race for the AL East. I gave out their divisional odds at 10/1 as one of my favorite bets before the season. Their World Series futures odds have only moved from 35/1 down to 33/1.
That’s the best futures value on the MLB market, in my opinion, as you can hedge against it every round if/when they at least capture a wildcard and make it to the playoffs.
The projections also flagged the Brewers, Diamondbacks, Marlins, and Orioles, all of which I’m comfortable playing today.
While the Arizona, Baltimore, and Miami lines have remained stable, I’ve seen positive movement on Milwaukee.
The Brewers (7-1) and Cubs (1-6) are at opposite ends of the NL Central right now, with the Cubs having lost six games in a row. Perhaps the #FadetheCubs movement is beginning to catch on, as the line for the Brewers has already moved 18 cents in my favor (-109 to -127).
Things won’t get any easier for the Cubs today, as they have to take on an emerging arm for the Brewers in Corbin Burnes.
After working exclusively out of the bullpen for the Brewers last season, Burnes earned his way into the 2019 rotation. In his first start against the Cardinals, he surrendered three home runs, but only walked one batter and struck out 12 over 5 innings.
Burnes is a master of a high spin rate fastball, meaning that he should generate more swinging strikes than most pitchers do at maximum velocity.
Ideally, you want to locate a high spin fastball up in the zone, to generate the optical illusion of “rise” for the hitter. High spin fastballs up in the zone are just one of the many tools that Jacob deGrom uses to get hitters out.
Burnes also owns a devastating slider, with tremendous glove side command of the pitch:
Burnes and the Brewers give us another opportunity to #FadetheCubs today. I mentioned last week that I think Cole Hamels is in a decline phase, and this is another spot to go against him today.
The Brewers have been VERY fortunate in one-run games (5-0 record), but I’m expecting Burnes and their bullpen to leave the Cubs shaking their heads once again on Saturday.
Bets (So Far) for April 6
Thus far, I have locked in:
- Arizona Diamondbacks (+129)
- Baltimore Orioles (+160)
- Milwaukee Brewers (-109)
- Miami Marlins (+155)
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/6: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.