Boston Red Sox 2019 Betting Odds, Preview: Will the Reigning Champs Win the AL East?

Boston Red Sox 2019 Betting Odds, Preview: Will the Reigning Champs Win the AL East? article feature image

Evan Habeeb-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi.

  • The Red Sox had a magical season for fans and bettors last year, winning 108 games en route to a World Series title.
  • They're counting on their winning ways to continue, as they've done very little in the offseason to improve their roster. Their bullpen is a big concern in particular.
  • They'll look for 22-year-old third baseman Rafael Devers to bounce back from a sophomore slump and hope that Nathan Eovaldi can pitch like he did in the playoffs if they want to win the AL East for the third straight year.

Original analysis published on Feb. 18. 

How ’bout those Red Sox?!?

The 2018 Boston Red Sox could do no wrong. It all started with the signing of J.D. Martinez in the offseason, which led to a much improved offense following an atypical season in which they felt the loss of David Ortiz’s bat in the middle of the lineup.

Dave Dombrowski added Steve Pearce and Nathan Eovaldi during the season and I guess you could say they made an impact. Both have since been re-signed, which essentially sums up an otherwise quiet winter for the World Series Champions.

The offseason has not been quiet for the Bronx Bombers, though. Will Boston fall behind their most hated foe?

Boston Red Sox 2018 Results

  • Record: 108-54 (+18.6 units), 92-70 ATS (+17.4 units)
  • Over/Under Record: 77-76-9
  • Preseason World Series Odds: +1150
  • Win Total: 92 (T-2 best margin)
  • Most Profitable Starter: Eduardo Rodriguez (19-4, +8.2 units)

One may have thought that being 54 games over .500 would lead to more than +18.6 units, but that’s probably never going to be the case for a popular team like the Red Sox. The real money-makers last year were teams like the Athletics and Rays, both whom won 90-plus games despite preseason win totals of less than 80 games.

They were available in the 10-1 range to win the World Series before the season, and bettors likely never were able to get a better payout than that. They got hot out of the gate, established themselves as an elite club and never had to dig themselves out of a deep hole in any of their postseason series.

Boston Red Sox 2019 Odds

  • World Series Odds: +700
  • Division Odds: +140
  • Win Total O/U: 94
  • Playoff Odds: Make -600, Miss +425

Understandably, the Red Sox are among the favorites again this season. Before their 108 win campaign, they had won 93 games in back-to-back seasons. The oddsmakers believe they can hit that 93-win mark again, but highly doubt they can push for 110 wins.

Just so you know, I’ve never seen a win total higher than 97.5 games

After opening at 93.5 at Westgate, Boston’s win total quickly moved to 94. Other books have been around 95.5, so there could definitely be some more movement over the next month and change.

Unfortunately for the Sox, they play in a tight division and could end up having to play a wild card game despite potentially having the second-best record in the MLB.

The Yankees, who won 100 games themselves last year, have improved their roster far more this offseason than Boston has.

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Boston Red Sox Roster Notes

  • Additions: Colten Brewer, Gorkys Hernandez (minors), Juan Centeno (minors), Erasmo Ramirez (minors), Jenrry Mejia (minors), Bryce Brentz (minors), Miguel Rojas (minors)
  • Subtractions: Craig Kimbrel, Joe Kelly, Drew Pomeranz, Ian Kinsler, Brandon Phillips, William Cuevas
  • Potential Lineup
    1. Andrew Benintendi – LF
    2. Mookie Betts – RF
    3. Xander Bogaerts – SS
    4. J.D. Martinez – DH
    5. Rafael Devers – 3B
    6. Mitch Moreland/Steve Pearce – 1B
    7. Jackie Bradley Jr. – CF
    8. Brock Holt/Eduardo Nunez – 2B
    9. Christian Vazquez/Blake Swihart – C
  • Projected Rotation
    1. Chris Sale
    2. David Price
    3. Rick Porcello
    4. Nathan Eovaldi
    5. Eduardo Rodriguez
  • Prospect Watch: Michael Chavis (#79, 3B), Durbin Feltman (Unranked, RHP), Mike Shawaryn (Unranked, RHP), Darwinzon Hernandez (Unranked, LHP)
  • Key Injuries: Dustin Pedroia (Knee, early-mid April)
  • MVP Candidates: Mookie Betts (+500), J.D. Martinez (+2500), Andrew Benintendi (+4000), Xander Bogaerts (+5000), Rafael Devers (+10000), Jackie Bradley Jr. (+20000), Chris Sale (+20000)
  • Cy Young Candidates: Chris Sale (+400), David Price (+1800), Rick Porcello (+3000), Nathan Eovaldi (+4000), Eduardo Rodriguez (+6000)

Boston Red Sox Analysis

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