Braves vs. Astros World Series Odds, Player Prop Picks: Find Game 6 Value in Luis Garcia & Austin Riley
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Austin Riley
Braves vs. Astros Game 6 Odds
|Time||8:09 p.m. ET|
|Odds via DraftKings. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.|
The Astros’ bats have brought this series back to Houston, and our team is prepared to back their starting pitcher on Tuesday night.
Plus, there’s an Atlanta bat that poses value in this postseason scenario.
Read on for our favorite player props for tonight’s Game 6.
MLB Player Props & Picks
Luis Garcia Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-160 at DraftKings)
The umpire behind home plate today is Mike Mulchinsky, who has one of the highest K-Boosts (1.17x) among MLB umpires, per Swish Analytics. As such, there will be value on both starting pitchers tonight.
However, this is the pitcher I feel more comfortable with. Luis Garcia checks every box in Game 6, while Max Fried still has to face the most disciplined and best left-handed hitting lineup in baseball.
This is already a low line, one that Garcia hit in 24 of his 29 regular season starts (83%) and in his two most recent playoff starts. That includes Game 3 of this series, where Garcia struck out a whopping six Braves over just 3 2/3 innings.
The Braves hit RHPs well, but they struck out at the ninth-highest rate against them in the regular season. Garcia has faced the nine Atlanta hitters in a combined 17 PAs in his career, and he’s posted a whopping 42.1% Whiff rate in those ABs.
It’s likely because of Garcia’s cutter. His cutter is untouchable, as he’s posted a -11 Run Value on the pitch this season with a 39.2% strikeout rate. Of his six Game 3 strikeouts, four came on the cutter, as the Braves are simply average against the pitch (0.4 wCT per FanGraphs).
Luis Garcia, Nasty 88mph Cutter…and Sword. ⚔️ pic.twitter.com/Wt6hzlC1Eo
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 30, 2021
Garcia is also more effective at home, where he’s posted a 10.25 K/9, compared to just 9.08 K/9 on the road.
Garcia is starting on short rest, but he doesn’t have to pitch a lot of innings to hit a line this low. Every projection I’ve seen for Garcia has him crushing this number:
- Betting Pros: 5.53 Ks
- FanGraphs SaberSim: 5.16 Ks
- Action Labs Player Props Tool: 6.6 Ks
Even factoring in what’s sure to be a quick hook, the possibility he punches out four is too high.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Austin Riley Over 1.5 Total Bases (+150 at DraftKings)
Austin Riley has been on fire with this prop. He’s cashed his total bases over in:
- 19 of his last 30 games
- 7 of his last 10 games
- 4 of his last 5 games
Throughout his 14 postseason games, he’s accumulated 27 bases, good for 1.92 per game. That gives us plenty of value on an over that’s being offered at huge plus money.
This postseason has been filled with quick hooks and tons of relievers. Riley is the perfect hitter for these scenarios, as he hits both lefties and righties well and has posted a positive Run Value against the four-seam, slider, curveball and changeup.
There aren’t many pitchers that have a big advantage against him, and he’ll have plenty of opportunities tonight to add to his postseason bases total.