Lo Duca’s Nationals-Brewers Betting Preview: A Good Time To Fade Mediocre Pitching

Betting odds: Washington Nationals at Milwaukee Brewers

• Nationals +107 (Tanner Roark)
• Brewers -127 (Freddy Peralta)
• Over/Under: 9
• First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET

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I have to admit, I was a bit perplexed by the line for Wednesday's matinee between the Nationals and Brewers. Roark has struggled this season, and Peralta looks like a legitimate pitcher in his rookie season. I immediately gave the edge to Peralta and the Brewers, but then I dug more deeply and found my angle.

Roark has indeed struggled this season, but he's taken it to another level lately, giving up 17 earned runs on 28 hits and seven walks in his past 16 innings (three starts). One of those starts was against the Red Sox, but the other two were against the Marlins and the Mets.

Something isn't right with him. Over his past seven starts he's allowed 31 earned runs on 56 hits and 18 walks in 36.1 innings.

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Peralta, on the other hand, has been pretty impressive this season. He's averaging more than 12 strikeouts per nine innings pitched, and his 2.65 ERA is nearly identical to his 2.70 FIP.

There is a lot to like from the 22-year-old strikeout artist, even though he has only 37.1 innings under his belt.

One red flag of note: Peralta has started to struggle with his control lately. He has great stuff, but walks have plagued him since his time in the minors. It looks like that may be catching up to him again.

The 5-foot-11 right-hander has walked nine batters in his past 14.2 innings, and he's averaging 4.34 walks per nine innings this year. Peralta’s .216 BABIP (batting average on balls in play) also suggests he's been lucky this year, so there are some concerns.

I don't think there is any value in backing Roark at Miller Park as a slight underdog, and I don't feel comfortable backing Peralta against the Nationals because of his current form. But I do see value on the Over 9.

Neither of these pitchers has been good lately, and even if Peralta is on, he will issue free passes and the Nats can tag him.

The Pick: Over 9

Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.