Cubs-Reds Betting Preview: Buying Low on Cincy After a Win

Chicago Cubs at Cincinnati Reds, 7:10 p.m. ET

• Cubs (Quintana): -143
• Reds (Castillo): +128
• Over/Under: 8.5

Bet to Watch

Cincinnati’s Jesse Winker hit his first grand slam on Thursday. It was part of a six-run sixth inning that powered the Reds to a 6-2 over the Chicago Cubs. The result was a sharp stick in the eye for casual bettors as 76% of bettors took the Cubbies -180.

The squares are expecting Chicago to bounce back tonight. A whopping 86% of moneyline tickets are on the Cubs as road favorites. This makes sense: The Cubbies have the best run-differential in NL and have owned the Reds recently. Since 2015, Cincy is 20-43 against their division rival including 11-23 at Great American Ball Park.

I’m not buying it. Despite the overwhelming public support the line is moving toward the Redlegs (+135 to +127). That's an indication of sharp money. Then there are a pair of Bet Labs Pro Systems that point to taking the home dog.

Bad Teams After a Win

Cincinnati is 29-45, tied with Miami for the fewest wins in the National League. There’s no way the Reds can win back-to-back games, right? Actually, the team has strung together four wins in a row, and league wide, it has been profitable to bet bad teams after a win.

Since 2005, teams that have won 40% or less of their games have gone 1,471-1,595 (48%) in their next contest following a victory. Because these teams are usually underdogs, $100 bettors following this system have returned a profit of $17,788.

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Betting Against the Public

Lopsided betting action creates value for contrarian bettors. In baseball, underdogs in division games getting less than 30% of moneyline tickets have been a sharp play, especially when the line moves in their direction like it has with Cincinnati. Since 2005, teams in this scenario are 729-860 straight-up. Again, because we are betting underdogs it doesn’t matter that this system has a losing record. A $100 bettor would be up $17,041 following this system for a 10.7% return on investment.

Let’s recap. The public is on Cubs after a loss. The line is moving in the Reds direction. There are bet signals and Pro Systems on Cincinnati.

The pick: Reds +128

Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.