Windy Conditions Set for Battle of Aces at Wrigley
Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jon Lester
- The Cubs look to bounce back with a W in the second game of their crosstown series against the White Sox with Jon Lester hosting emerging ace Lucas Giolito (8:05 p.m. ET).
- The wind will be blowing in at Wrigley which has caused oddsmakers to post an over/under of 7 - a key number in games like this one.
White Sox (L. Giolito) at Cubs (J. Lester)
8:05 p.m. ET
Conditions: 58 degrees, 11 mph wind blowing in
Over/Under: 7 (o-125)
Buckle up, folks, we have ourselves a Chicago showdown at Wrigley tonight. The Cubs are putting forth their old trusty workhorse in Jon Lester, while the White Sox are trotting out their shiny new thoroughbred in Lucas Giolito.
Giolito, who was formerly a top prospect, was absolutely horrendous in his first full season last year, posting an ERA north of 6. In case you’ve been living under a rock a la Patrick Star or just getting back from a casual stroll up Everest with the other stupid rich folk, Giolito is good this year. Very good. Like, the best pitcher in the American League up to this point.
Will he continue his excellency? Maybe not to the tune of a 2.22 ERA, but it appears as if he’s certainly turned a corner.
One thing is for certain, though, and that’s the fact that Mother Nature will be doing her best to help him shove tonight.
It’s always a toss up at Wrigley, as winds can be your best friend or worst enemy. Tonight will be the best friend edition, at least for the pitchers.
Historically, games with winds blowing in at Wrigley have gone under 58.6% of the time per Bet Labs. However, as you may have read in a similar article of mine a couple weeks ago, there comes a point when the value disappears. This number appears to be 7 in these situations:
- 7.5 or higher: Unders are 90-49-9 (64.7%)
- 7 or lower: Unders are 16-26-3 (38.1%)
I recall a tweet from Bet Labs manager Travis Reed that said something along the lines of, “There’s a good price for any bet.” Maybe I botched that, but the gist of the tweet was that there’s always going to be value on a side if you can get a good enough price. For example, maybe Clayton Kershaw is up against a local community college team for some odd reason. They basically have a 0% chance, but are they a good bet at +10000? Sure. Stupid frigging example …
Anywho, when you see that weathervane pointing towards home plate at Wrigley, you automatically assume under, but if that total gets hammered down to 7 or 6.5, you should start thinking about buyback.
Today’s game opened at 7 with a heavily juiced over. We shall see what type of betting activity it gets, but I wouldn’t be surprised if the under was quite popular given the pitching matchup. If there is heavy under action and the total drops to 6.5, it may be a good time to go contrarian and fade the weather-based narrative.