Barkley: The Angle I’m Betting in the NL West Tiebreaker

Barkley: The Angle I’m Betting in the NL West Tiebreaker article feature image
Credit:

Ron Chenoy, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Nolan Arenado

Betting odds: Colorado Rockies at Los Angeles Dodgers

  • Rockies Moneyline: +157 (German Marquez)
  • Dodgers Moneyline: -167 (Walker Buehler)
  • Over/Under: 7 (-105/-115)
  • First pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
  • Channel: ESPN

I admittedly haven’t watched much baseball the last month or two. There are many of you reading this who have a more thorough, encyclopedic knowledge of recent results than I could ever hope to have.

Here are some things I know: in our baseball chat, smart people — people who bet on baseball and think about the game in a detailed way — are unanimously insistent that the under is a great idea here.

Their support for such claims involve regular-season statistics, recent statistics, etc., meaning things that have occurred in the past six months.

Paul Lo Duca also gave a compelling case for this game in his write-up. Both of these starting pitchers are really good, so I see where he’s coming from for his play. But, I’m coming from a different angle — expecting the unexpected.

This “extra” game is something that doesn’t happen very often. It last occurred in 2013 and that’s the only time it happened since the playoffs were expanded to 10 teams. I think it is interesting to consider the possibility that using all of this data we have accrued to try to predict a very abnormal, out-of-routine game for baseball players might not be ideal.

None of this was expected for these teams. This type of situation so rarely happens. And yet the total is being pulled into a pretty low part of the average total range (now 7 -115 for the under), near the edges, for a game I’d argue is less predictable than others.

I’ll see where the number goes as we get closer to game time, and consider grabbing the best possible over number I can find if things stay on their current trajectory.