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Dodgers vs. Marlins Odds, Preview, Prediction: How to Bet Alcantara & Urias Pitching Duel (Thursday, July 8)

Dodgers vs. Marlins Odds, Preview, Prediction: How to Bet Alcantara & Urias Pitching Duel (Thursday, July 8) article feature image

Mark Brown/Getty Images. Pictured: Sandy Alcantara.

Dodgers vs. Marlins Odds

Dodgers Odds -157
Marlins Odds +143
Over/Under 7.5
Time 12:10 p.m. ET
TV MLB Network
Odds as of Wednesday and via PointsBet.

Two teams with different plans halfway through the season close their series with an early day game in Miami. The Los Angeles Dodgers will send Julio Urias up against Marlins ace Sandy Alcantara. Two of the best young pitchers in the game have different goals to reach their task of helping their team win.

There is a a bet that I want to make, but we need to see if the numbers make it actionable.

Urias Should Have Strong Start for Dodgers

The Los Angeles Dodgers have one of the best offenses (surprise), and it translates on the road. They are one of six teams with a wRC+ over 100 on the road against right-handers. Despite a power shortage away from Dodger Stadium, the offense features the best walk rate, on-base percentage, and best Line Drive percentage against right-handed pitching.

Los Angeles is also second in Medium Hit percentage, a solid tie-in with their LD%. The Dodgers offense does not have to hit multiple home runs per game to beat opponents.

Julio Urias has been the “worst” of the four Dodgers starting pitchers to anchor the staff in 2021. His 3.81 ERA is slightly above his Expected ERA and Fielder Independent Pitching, but would be lower if he made more starts on the road. His 3.40 road ERA is 0.87 runs lower than at home, but both are respectable at worst. Urias has allowed 49 baserunners in 53 innings pitched in road games and has held opposing hitters to a .200/.246/.379 slash line.

Miami has one of the worst home wRC+ against southpaws and strikes out 26.6% of the time. The Marlins also have the second worst walk rate at home, another positive for Urias as he continues his three-year decrease in walk rate.

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Can Alcantara Overcome Marlins Hitting Woes?

The Marlins offense has hit for average at home, and that is about it. Miami is one percentage point away from being the fourth team to have a batting average and OBP below .300 at home against lefthanders. A correlation that is never good to be high in is Groundball-to-Flyball ratio and Soft Hit percentage. Miami is top 10 in both.

The firepower is not there for Miami with too much of a gap between talent on the precipice of breaking out and veterans that are not going to be around beyond July or the end of this season.

Where the Marlins have excelled is pitching, and Sandy Alcantara has been the face of the rotation. His walks and home runs have decreased, while his groundball percentage and fastball velocity have increased in each of the past three seasons.

The 25-year old has higher expected numbers because of his groundball dependency and lack of talent fielding the ball, but he continues to limit hard contact. His 3.8 Barrel percentage is his best since 2018 when he only pitched 34 innings. Alcantara faced the Dodgers in L.A. this season and had his worst outing of 2021, but the Dodgers are a different hitting team away from Chavez Ravine.

Dodgers-Marlins Pick

This game is a great way to start Thursday’s action, and I like that the juice on under 7.5 runs is not out of hand. The Marlins have been bad in day games (11-17), but I would rather back Miami’s best pitcher and bet the run total.

A second way to back this matchup and support the Marlins is the run line. They have won both games of the series by one run heading into Wednesday night’s game.

Pick: Under 7.5 Runs (Bet to -130, and/or take the Marlins +1.5 runs -139 through -155)

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