Friday’s MLB Over/Under: Gibson, Duffy Look To Maintain Success Against Familiar Foes
Credit: Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Danny Duffy.
- Danny Duffy entered the break on a strong four-game stretch and has great history against the Twins.
- Kyle Gibson has been rolling in his last 10 starts, including a scoreless outing against the Royals.
After a few days off, it’s good to be back in the saddle for the beginning of the second half. Let’s get right into it.
Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 63-40-3, +18.85 units
Yesterday’s Result: N/A (All-Star break)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit
>> Follow Matt Zylbert in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his MLB bets during the season.
Minnesota Twins @ Kansas City Royals
- Over/under: 8.5
- First pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Probable Pitchers: Kyle Gibson (4-6, 3.42 ERA) vs. Danny Duffy (5-8, 4.59 ERA)
Whenever Duffy has squared off with the Twins throughout his career, he has posted impressive numbers — the kind of numbers that should have under bettors for this particular affair salivating.
In his eight years in the majors, Duffy has made 15 starts (and four relief appearances) against Minnesota, and in all but one of those outings, he surrendered three or fewer runs. Overall, the 29-year-old southpaw has registered a shiny 2.27 ERA opposite this division foe in 95 total innings, the second-best mark for his career against any opponent he’s faced more than three times. He’s also suffered only one loss to the Twins.
Let’s also consider that Duffy entered the break strong, with four quality starts in his last five outings — and in all four, he yielded no more than one run. Perhaps as important as anything to illustrate the rhythm he’s in, Duffy recorded at least seven strikeouts in each of the four quality showings. That’s something he’ll be capable of continuing Friday, facing a lineup that strikes out once every 3.76 at-bats against a left-hander. It’s also worth noting that Minnesota has the fewest home runs in the AL against lefties, with just 18.
And then there’s the other starting hurler in this matchup, Gibson, who also went into the All-Star break in a nice groove. In fact, the 30-year-old was very consistent in his last 10 starts leading up to the break, giving up three earned runs or fewer in nine of them.
>> Sign up for The Action Network’s daily newsletter to get the smartest conversation delivered into your inbox each morning.
That 10-game stretch included only one scoreless outing, but that came against the Royals, whom he blanked over seven sharp innings. During his five-year career, that’s been a trend for Gibson, who, like his counterpart, has been very good against tonight’s opponent. In 16 career meetings with Kansas City, the right-hander has gone 6-4 with a desirable 3.22 ERA.
We’re just looking for both guys to keep it going against familiar opponents. It’s unfortunate we missed out when the over/under line was 9, but there’s a shot it goes back there, so wait until first pitch to see if we get that inflation. Even if we don’t, under 8.5 is still my first bet of the unofficial second half.
Play: Under 8.5/9