KBO Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds & Model (Friday, June 5): Can Eagles Snap Losing Streak vs. Dinos?

KBO Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds & Model (Friday, June 5): Can Eagles Snap Losing Streak vs. Dinos? article feature image
Credit:

Han Myung-Gu/Getty Images. Pictured: No Jin-Hyuk

Favorites cleaned up on Thursday, with a 5-0 day in the KBO whether on the moneyline or the run line; as they won each game by at least four runs.

When all of the favorites win, I probably lose and unfortunately, I had a 1-5 day despite beating the closing line on every wager yet again.

I’m feeling a bit like Tae-hoon Kim this morning:

It's OK, Kim Tae Hoon.

We all have days like this. 😢 pic.twitter.com/wQHUcd9i2r

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) June 4, 2020

Head into Friday, I am 15-14 and at even money on KBO game and team totals for the season, and 22-34 on moneyline wagers; including a 7-7 record (-1.35 units) on favorites at average odds of -127 (implied 56%), and a 15-27 record (38.4%, -6.12 units) on underdogs at average odds of +144 (implied 41%).

During the 2019 MLB season, I bet at average odds of around +130 (implied 43.5%) for the season and won those bets at a 49.5% rate.

In short, I haven’t won my KBO bets as frequently as my implied odds to date suggest, but I’m also not substantially off of the pace either; and I’ll continue to play small edges and look to beat closing lines as the KBO schedule progresses.

If you are looking for more information about the KBO League, check out my season primer. If you want to know more about Taiwan’s CPBL, you can find that here.

  • KBO Year to Date: 37-48 (-7.47 Units)
  • CPBL Year to Date: 32-24 (+9.95 Units)

KBO Odds, Picks, Predictions & Betting Model


Odds as of 1 p.m. ET on Thursday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


NC Dinos vs. Hanwha Eagles

  • Dinos moneyline: TBD
  • Eagles moneyline: TBD
  • Over/under: TBD
  • Time: 5:00 a.m. ET
  • TV: ESPN
  • BET NOW

Probable Pitchers: NC Dinos (Mike Wright) vs. Hanwha Eagles (Shi-hwan Jang)

The KBO’s best team, the NC Dinos (20-6) and the worst team, the Hanwha Eagles (7-20) square off for a three-game series this weekend, with the Eagles coming into Friday on an 11-game losing streak.

Technically, Wright has struggled through his first five KBO starts, with a 5.18 FIP and .240 BABIP – suggesting that his 3.21 ERA is due for regression.


FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.


With a career 3.45 BB/9 at the MLB level, Wright’s command can come and go, and he has walked 12 batters in his first 28 KBO innings after a dominant preseason.

The 6’6 righty offers above-average velocity (94.5 mph fastball in 2019) for a KBO starter, with a wipeout slider; which returned a positive pitch value in two of his five MLB seasons:

Solid outing for Mike Wright today, who didn't get any help from the Dinos lineup or the bullpen in a 9-1 loss to the Samsung Lions.

Wright's final line: 6.0 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 4 K, 2 BB, 1 HR

All 4 Ks for the former Orioles RHP:#KBO #NCDinos pic.twitter.com/RPvCSPrESf

— Locked On Orioles (and LG Twins) (@LockedOnOrioles) May 30, 2020

On Friday, Wright will get his second crack against the Hanwha Eagles, after beating them on May 24 (6 IP, 4 H, 2 R, 2 BB, 4 K).

His opponent that day, Shi-hwan Jang (5 IP, 4 H, 6 R, 4 B, 7 K) has posted a 4.76 FIP over five 2020 starts, after recording a 4.30 FIP for the Lotte Giants in 2019, and a 4.94 FIP in 2018, and will get a chance for revenge against the Dinos.

Jang has some command issues and gets himself into trouble, recording a 4.2 BB/9 in 27 starts last season after transitioning from the bullpen.

He has walked 18 batters in 24.2 innings this season, but his strikeout rate (11.3 K/9) is also elite:

#HanwhaEagles SP Jang Shi-hwan gets out of his own mess striking out the side with bases loaded, not allowing a run pic.twitter.com/osIeE3l8Rn

— Prospects Worldwide (@ProspectsWorldW) May 24, 2020

 

I projected the Dinos as a 59.6% favorite for Friday, and I would bet the Dinos to -125 (implied 55.6%), which is a 4% edge compared to my projection.

Conversely, I would look to bet the Eagles at +175 (implied 36.4%) or better, which is also a 4% edge compared to my projection (40.4%%). Use our betting calculator to find your edge if you have different odds.

I projected the total at 9.6 runs and would bet Over 8.5 (-109), Under 10.5 (-102), or Under 11 (-112) at a 3.9% edge.

See all of Friday’s KBO and CPBL projections below, and check back later today for my picks on the Dinos-Eagles game, and Friday’s other KBO and CPBL games.

NC Dinos vs. Hanwha Eagles Picks

  • Hanwha Eagles +216 (0.5 units)
  • Hanwha Eagles Team Total, Over 3.5 (-104, 0.5 units)
  • NC Dinos Team Total, Under 6.5 (+105, 0.5 units)

[Bet now at DraftKings. CO, NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.]


Full KBO Betting Card for June 5

  • LG Twins +155 (1 unit)
  • Hanwha Eagles +216 (0.5 units)
  • Hanwha Eagles Team Total, Over 3.5 (-104, 0.5 units)
  • NC Dinos Team Total, Under 6.5 (+105, 0.5 units)

KBO Year to Date: 37-48 (-7.47 Units)

Full CPBL Betting Card for June 5

  • Uni-Lions / CTBC Brothers, Over 12.5 (-110, 0.5 units)
  • CTBC Brothers +105 (0.5 units)
  • Fubon Guardians +336 (0.5 units)
Uni-Lions / CTBC Brothers, Over 12.5
Bet at -110, 0.5 units

Bet Now

NJ, PA, IN, and WV only.

CPBL Year to Date: 32-24 (+9.95 Units)


Zerillo’s Full KBO + CPBL Model, June 5

Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover the full game moneylines, over/unders, and team totals. A sample of one of the sheets is below: 

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