Lo Duca: The Mets Are Impossible to Bet on, But Jacob deGrom Is Not

Lo Duca: The Mets Are Impossible to Bet on, But Jacob deGrom Is Not article feature image

Editor’s note: This article was published on Thursday evening before Jacob deGrom was scratched from Friday’s start due to family issues. 

New York Mets @ Miami Marlins, 7:10 p.m., ET

  • New York Mets (Jacob deGrom) -163
  • Miami Marlins (Sandy Alcantara) +147
  • Over/Under: 7

Bet to Watch

DeGrom is coming off his worst outing of the year. In his last assignment, the right-hander allowed three runs on five hits and three walks in six innings. That’s right, deGrom’s poorest performance was a quality start against a red-hot Dodgers team, and it moved his ERA 18 basis points from 1.51 to 1.69.

On Friday, deGrom takes on a Marlins team that was just dominated by a polished pitcher in Zack Greinke. DeGrom is like Greinke 5.0. Even though the Fish have been better than we all expected, I can’t see deGrom not dominating. His curveball should be nasty, especially in this heat.

On the other side is 22-year-old Sandy Alcantara. The right-hander was 5-3 with a 3.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP and 6.78 K/9 in 85 innings with Triple-A New Orleans this year. Don’t let the low strikeout number fool you, Alcantara can be nasty and has a fastball that’s touched 100 mph. He’s been mostly 95-99 mph this year.

The reason Alcantara didn’t start the year with the big club is that the Marlins wanted to stretch him out as a starter. He was the big chip in the deal that sent Marcell Ozuna to the Cardinals, and the Fish just wanted him to keep refining his game before feeding him to the wolves. Alcantara has struggled with walks, but entering play today, the Mets rank 22nd in MLB in on-base percentage, so this could be the right matchup for him.

The pick: Under 7