MLB Player Props: Stro-Show or No-Show?

MLB Player Props: Stro-Show or No-Show? article feature image

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marcus Stroman.

  • Using the FantasyLabs Player Prop model, we've found value on the strikeout over/under for Marcus Stroman against the Angels.

Although Xander Bogaerts got the memo that we were looking for strikeouts yesterday, whiffing twice against Aaron Brooks, nobody else did.

The other eight hitters just needed to combine for two more strikeouts, but they went whiff-less instead! How ’bout those Red Sox?!

MLB Player Props – Wednesday, May 1

Our FantasyLabs MLB Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. View live odds for individual games here.

Blue Jays SP Marcus Stroman

The Pick: Under 4.5 (-140)

I have never been a part of the Marcus Stroman bandwagon. Never ever.

His name is tossed around with some of the best in the game, but he has a career ERA of nearly 4 and strikes out hardly anyone.

With that said, he’s off to a terrific start to the 2019 season — 1.43 ERA, 2.31 FIP, no dongs allowed and a career-best 8.60 K/9. He’s struck out at least five batters in all six starts this season … hammer under 4.5!

It may seem like a strange play, but hear me out.

He faces an Angels lineup with a SO/AB rate of just 18.2% per FantasyLabs models, a statistic that factors in handedness and lineup order, which is the lowest of any team today.

There are several Angels in particular who very rarely strike out against righties. Here are a few names that should be in the lineup tonight along with their K% since the start of the 2018 season:

  • Andrelton Simmons: 8.1%
  • Tommy La Stella: 10.8%
  • Jonathan Lucroy: 11.7%
  • Albert Pujols: 11.9%
  • Mike Trout: 17.7%

Stroman has been closer to one strikeout per inning pitcher this year, but he has a long history of posting a K/9 closer to seven.

We’re projecting just 3.5 Ks for Stroman, 0.9 less than these odds imply. I would not bet this past the -150 range, nor would I bet under 4 (unless you get juicy plus-money odds on it).