Adam Hunger-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Dellin Betances
Seattle Mariners at New York Yankees, 7:05 p.m. ET Tuesday
- Mariners (Marco Gonzales): +153
- Yankees (Domingo German): -170
- Over/under: 9
Bet to watch
This was one of the very few significant disparities between my model’s projections and the overnight market for Tuesday, a difference of about 11 cents. (I try to stick to betting differences of 10 cents or higher until I get all the tiny kinks worked out of this thing.)
I will be really, really curious to see what happens with this number, because you’re obviously dealing with the Yankees, who seem to always take money, and they’re at home. Even with German, New York’s weakest starting pitcher, on the mound, the Yankee uniform always draws people in. Maybe that public team perception is what’s creating this disparity compared to my model for Tuesday. I’m not sure.
Despite the Yankees being that public team, I think there will be some reluctance with New York here, even if only minor. The Yanks had to play essentially two games Monday against Washington, using seven of their eight bullpen pitchers, some in high-leverage situations. That’s an added bonus with me on Seattle here, for sure.
Meanwhile, the Mariners had an off day, so any advantage you assign to rest heavily favors Seattle in this instance. Gonzales, Seattle’s surprisingly effective left-handed starter, has good road splits, and his analytics do not predict a forthcoming regression.
At the time of publication, 63% of tickets are on the Seattle moneyline. I have this line closer to +140/-140, so if you can find the Mariners in the +150 or better range, my advice is to take it.
Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.