Marlins vs. Mets Odds: Historic Weather Conditions Creating Betting Value

Marlins vs. Mets Odds: Historic Weather Conditions Creating Betting Value article feature image
Credit:

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports.

  • Today's Marlins vs. Mets game (12:10 p.m. ET) is expected to be played in historic weather conditions.
  • Using The Action Network's betting tools, we analyze this forecast and detail how bettors can take advantage.

Betting odds: Miami Marlins vs. New York Mets

  • Marlins moneyline: +176
  • Mets moneyline: -197
  • Over/Under: 9
  • First pitch: 12:10 p.m. ET

The red-hot Mets are looking to sweep the Fish and gain more ground in the NL Wild Card race, but will be playing in Citi Field conditions like they’ve never seen before.

If you caught yesterday’s weather forecast, you may have seen that strong hitting conditions were blessing the Marlins-Mets game. The Weather Rating of 67 wasn’t too noteworthy compared to other parks around the country, but it was just the 10th time all season that there was a rating higher than 65 at Citi Field.

However, as often is the case at Citi Field, that favorable weather did not lead to an outburst of runs. The Mets won, 5-0, and the under cashed with ease. The 10 games with the highest Weather Ratings at Citi this season now have an over record of just 3-7. Not something to bank on.

Today’s matinee is something else, though. With a Weather Rating of 80, the Marlins and Mets will be playing in the best offensive conditions we’ve ever seen in Flushing, topping the previous record of 78 per FantasyLabs’ Trends Tool.

Responsible for this lofty rating are warm temperatures and strong winds blowing straight out to center. Temps will be in the mid-to-upper 80s and winds will range from 12-15 mph.

Per Bet Labs, overs have gone 33-20-2 at Citi Field with double-digit winds blowing out to center.

It’s actually a good thing this game starts at noon ET because these warm and windy conditions will lead to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon. In fact, if you’re playing DFS, I wouldn’t be entirely confident that all nine innings of this game will be played.

Given the conditions, the over/under has risen from 8.5 to 9 (o-120) since opening.

Steven Matz of the Mets will not like this forecast, as his 1.65 HR/9 would rank in the top 10 if he had pitched enough innings to qualify. He certainly doesn’t need any extra help letting up dongs.

Meanwhile, Marlins pitcher and seller of senkos, Jordan Yamamoto, is realizing that pitching in the MLB is harder than he once thought.

  • First six starts: 34 innings, 1.59 ERA, zero home runs allowed
  • Last three starts: 14 innings, 9.64 ERA, four home runs allowed

Will we see the Yamamoto who dominated in the early going or the terrible one we’ve seen recently? Mother Nature will be doing her best to ensure the latter.