New York Mets at Colorado Rockies, 8:40 p.m. ET 

  • Mets (Jacob deGrom): -123
  • Rockies (Tyler Anderson): +113
  • O/U: 9.5

Bet to Watch

Under 9.5

I think oddsmakers set this total 0.5 run too high, as we’ve seen a lot in Colorado this year due to the reputation of Coors. Overs are 13-16-1 in Rockies home games in 2018.

Despite pitching at a Cy Young level all season, Jacob deGrom has only a 4-2 record through his first 14 starts. How can the league-leader in ERA (1.55) have only four wins on June 18? Well, he plays for the Mets, whose anemic offense hasn’t given him any run support.

I mean, deGrom (3-0 with a 0.99 ERA in five career starts vs. Colorado) has pitched at least 7.0 innings in each of his past six starts. Over that span, he owns a 1.02 ERA over 53.0 innings — with 57 strikeouts to just nine walks. His record in those six games? 1-2.

He should do deGrom things against a really top-heavy, flawed Rockies lineup. However, I wouldn’t expect the lack of run support to change against a left-handed starter — even in Denver’s altitude.

Mets vs. Lefties

After failing to score more than three runs in 11 straight games, the Mets scored five in back-to-back wins against Arizona. However, four of those runs came with two outs in the ninth inning — after two Diamondbacks’ defensive miscues. This offense is still a mess with the worst batting average (.226) in MLB.

That’s especially true against left-handed pitching, as New York’s anemic .203 average against southpaws ranks dead last in the majors. Other stats they also rank dead last against lefties in: home runs (10), on-base percentage (.285) and slugging (.299). Yes, the Mets are seriously slugging below .300 vs left-handers.

Their lineup just has too many holes against lefties. Just take a look at a likely Mets lineup against the left-handed Anderson.

They really miss Yoenis Cespedes.

Anderson comes into this one in good form, having allowed a total of only three earned runs and one walk over his past two starts. He pitched 7.0 innings in each (both in other hitter’s parks in Cincy and Philly) — which I think he can replicate against a team that hasn’t sniffed lefties.

Bullpen Barometer

The Rockies now have second-worst bullpen ERA (5.49) in baseball, trailing only the Royals. Their relievers own an MLB-worst 8.54 ERA in the month of June.

Colorado’s two big offseason bullpen acquisitions (Bryan Shaw and Wade Davis) have especially struggled, but neither will probably pitch tonight after their weekend workload. The lone bright spot in the Rockies pen, Adam Ottavino (0.89 ERA), should be available — as will a number of lefty arms the Rockies can call on.

The Mets also have a subpar pen, but it has pitched better of late and did just get Jeurys Familia back. I think Met relievers can get through an inning or two — if they even need it with deGrom on the bump.

Bottom line: both starters have favorable matchups and can each provide enough length to mask some of their respective team’s bullpen issues.

It’s never fun to bet an under at Coors, but I think this presents a good spot to do so.


Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.

Credit:

Noah K. Murray-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Jacob deGrom

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