Freedman’s Favorite MLB Prop (May 24): Bet Against Miles Mikolas
Kamil Krzaczynski, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Miles Mikolas
- Matthew Freedman continues his series featuring at least one of his favorite bets for each day of 2019.
- On Friday, he highlights the MLB player prop he likes most for Game 1 of the Cardinals-Braves series.
Each day, I publish 1-2 pieces on props I like. See my master list of 2019 prop bets for more information.
In this piece, I highlight my favorite MLB player prop for Game 1 of the St. Louis Cardinals-Atlanta Braves series.
For up-to-the-minute lines, check out our live betting odds page.
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2019 Year-to-Date Record
832-613-43, +132.55 Units
- NFL: 21-13-0, +11.72 Units
- NBA: 405-302-7, +49.52 Units
- NHL: 128-110-9, +19.32 Units
- MLB: 49-54-13, -10.19 Units
- Golf: 9-12-2, -0.70 Units
- NASCAR: 11-17-0, -5.77 Units
- NCAAB: 125-70-12, +38.82 Units
- NCAAF: 0-1-0, -1.00 Units
- Exotic: 79-34-0, +28.50 Units
- Horse Racing: 4-0-0, +2.19 Units
Game 1: Atlanta Braves at St. Louis Cardinals Betting Odds
- Braves: +141
- Cardinals: -153
- Over: 9.5 (-105)
- Under: 9.5 (-115)
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
Cardinals Pitcher Milo Mikolas: Strikeouts Prop
- Over 4.0: -114
- Under 4.0: -114
Mikolas might want to consider changing his last name to “Mikiocre,” amirite?
Although Mikolas had a 2.83 ERA last year and was sixth in National League Cy Young voting, this year he has been the definition of Mikiocrity. (#NailedIt)
Year over year, Mikolas has lost velocity on his three main pitches (in mph, per FanGraphs).
- Fastball: 93.9 vs. 93.4
- Slider: 88.1 vs. 86.8
- Curveball: 78.5 vs. 78.0
As a result, he has dropped from an uninspiring 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings last year to a flaccid 6.0.
In 10 starts this year, only twice has Mikolas had more than 4.0 strikeouts. Unsurprisingly, he’s 6-2-2 to the under on his K prop.
And there’s nothing great about his matchup. The projected Braves lineup has a middle-of-the-road 0.255 strikeout/at-bat average (per the FantasyLabs MLB Models).
There’s a decent chance that this bet will end with a push, but I’m leaning to the under.
Mikolas is yet to throw more than 100 pitches in any game this year, and in half of his games he’s failed to go past the fifth inning.
I’d bet under 4.0 strikeouts down to -140.
The Pick: Under 4.0 (-114)