Quick MLB Betting and Fantasy Notes for All 8 Monday Games

Quick MLB Betting and Fantasy Notes for All 8 Monday Games article feature image
Credit:

Sergio Estrada-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Madison Bumgarner

If you’re the type of bettor who likes a variety of sports on your betting card, you’ll have to wait until the end of this week when the U.S. Open and World Cup kick off. Until then, the focus will be on MLB betting. Unfortunately, we don’t have any matinee action to start your week, but we do have eight games Monday night to dive into. Let’s dig in.


Boston Red Sox (-118) at Baltimore Orioles (+108) | O/U: 9

Steven Wright (2-0, 1.57 ERA) vs. Dylan Bundy (4-7, 4.04 ERA)
7:05 p.m. ET

Boston leads MLB with 341 runs scored, while Baltimore ranks second from the bottom with 229. (Only the Marlins have fewer.) The Orioles have scored three or fewer runs in 40 of their 64 games this season, and reached the four-run mark only twice in their current 2-11 stretch. While Boston does lead MLB in runs scored, it has recently really missed the injured Mookie Betts. The Sox have scored two runs or fewer in three of their past four games, which they did only three times in their previous 41 games. — Stuckey

Despite having the worst record in baseball, the Orioles (19-45) saw a short opening line of +115 move to +108 against one of the best teams in baseball. Should bettors follow the line movement? Since 2005, bad teams (winning percentage of 30% or lower) listed as underdogs against a division opponent with line movement in their direction have gone 164-186 (47%) straight-up. A $100 bettor would have profited $2,925 for an 8.4% return on investment on those divisional dogs. — John Ewing

Toronto Blue Jays (-109) at Tampa Bay Rays (-101) | O/U: 8

Sam Gaviglio (2-1, 2.51 ERA) vs. Ryan Yarbrough (4-2, 3.68 ERA)
7:10 p.m. ET

After using Ryne Stanek on Sunday, the Rays have decided to now start Ryan Yarbrough in his place. Originally, I pegged Yarbrough as a nice contrarian option, given his strikeout upside. Now, casual players will see his cheap $5,600 salary listed with the starters on DraftKings. He could make for a popular option for those wanting to set up a stars and scrubs lineup. You could possibly pair him with Patrick Corbin or Carlos Carrasco. — Mark Gallant

San Francisco Giants (-175) at Miami Marlins (+160) | O/U: 7.5

Madison Bumgarner (0-1, 3.00 ERA) vs. Wei-Yin Chen (1-3, 5.86 ERA)
7:10 p.m. ET

The Giants’ offense should be in good shape against Chen, who has awful recent batted-ball data. Hitters have especially teed off against Chen over his past two starts. His 235-foot batted-ball distance, 96 mph exit velocity and 59% hard-hit percentage over the past 15 days are all slate highs. — Mark Gallant

Chicago Cubs (-126) at Milwaukee Brewers (+116) | O/U: 8.5

Jose Quintana (6-4, 4.20 ERA) vs. Junior Guerra (3-4, 2.83 ERA)
8:10 p.m. ET

The Brewers (39-26) lead the NL Central by a half-game. Since 2005, teams with a winning percentage of 60% or higher have gone just 103-134 (43.5%) as a home underdog against a division opponent in June or earlier. A $100 bettor would have lost 15.9 units playing a team in the Brewers’ spot over that span. — Evan Abrams

Also working in favor of the Cubs? The Brewers have struggled against lefties all season. Milwaukee ranks 26th in the league with a .376 slugging percentage — ahead of only the Orioles, Marlins, Phillies and Mets. I expect a strong start from the left-handed Quintana, who has a 4-1 record with a 0.63 ERA in six career starts against the Brew Crew. While Quintana has thrived historically against Milwaukee, Guerra can say the same against the Cubs. The right-hander boasts a 1.80 and sparkling .105 BAA in seven career games (four starts) against Chicago. — Stuckey

Cleveland Indians (-244) at Chicago White Sox (+195) | O/U: 9

Carlos Carrasco (7-4, 4.23 ERA) vs. Lucas Giolito (4-6, 7.08 ERA)
8:10 p.m. ET

The Indians enter this game in elite batted-ball form. Over the past 15 days, eight of their nine projected starters have outperformed their 12-month average Statcast data. Jose Ramirez, in particular, has scorched the baseball, posting a 256-foot average distance, 96 mph exit velocity and a 51% hard-hit rate. He could have a field day against Giolito, who owns a dreadful 6.73 xFIP to begin the 2018 season. In only three career at-bats against Giolito, Ramirez has a double and a homer. — Matt LaMarca

As Matt mentioned, Giolito has been awful all season. The former 2012 first-round draft pick is one of only three pitchers (Matt Moore and Alex Cobb) with an ERA over 7 with a minimum of 50 innings pitched. He amazingly has walked eight more batters than he has struck out and boasts a 12.79 ERA in five home starts this season. — Stuckey

The majority of early moneyline and run-line dollars are on Chicago. Since we started tracking dollars bet in 2016, favorites getting fewer than 50% of moneyline and run-line dollars have gone 278-306 SU. A $100 bettor would have profited $7,122 fading each one. — John Ewing

San Diego Padres (+170) at St. Louis Cardinals (-190) | O/U: 8

Jordan Lyles (2-2, 4.70 ERA) vs. Jack Flaherty (2-2, 3.20 ERA)
8:15 p.m. ET

The Padres have thrived as a big underdogs over the past two seasons. Since the start of 2017, San Diego is 22-32 when listed with an opening line of +160 or higher — good for +11.7 units. — Danny Donahue

Matt Carpenter looks like one of the best values of the day on DraftKings, where he leads all batters with a Bargain Rating of 96%. And not only does he own a .378 wOBA and .232 ISO against right-handers over the past 12 months, he’s also posted elite Statcast numbers over his past 13 games. Leadoff hitters with comparable Bargain Ratings and implied team totals have historically averaged a Plus/Minus of +2.48. — Matt LaMarca

Pittsburgh Pirates (+135) at Arizona Diamondbacks (-150) | O/U: 8

Joe Musgrove (2-1, 1.89 ERA) vs. Patrick Corbin (6-2, 2.87 ERA)
9:40 p.m. ET

Corbin has been one of the league’s best pitchers over the first two-plus months of the season. Both his 11.57 K/9 and .186 BAA (Batting Average Against) rank in the top five among all qualified pitchers. However, he’s historically struggled against the Pirates, posting a 5.32 ERA in four career starts. Jordy Mercer, Gregory Polanco, Josh Bell, Josh Harrison and Sean Rodriguez are a combined 13-for-33 (.394) with four homers off the Arizona lefty.  — Stuckey

Los Angeles Angels (-117) at Seattle Mariners (+107) | O/U: 8

Andrew Heaney (3-4, 3.12 ERA) vs. Wade LeBlanc (1-0, 2.94 ERA)
10:10 p.m. ET

Over the past three seasons, LeBlanc has made 10 home starts, all for the Mariners. Seattle is unbeaten in those games, with LeBlanc holding a 3.23 ERA. The lefty allowed four earned runs or fewer in all 10 starts. Since 2016, LeBlanc is the fifth-most profitable starter in baseball at home. — Evan Abrams

Seattle closed out a series win in Tampa with another one-run victory — its league-leading 21st of the season. The Mariners might get another win tonight in a battle of southpaws. Seattle ranks in the top third of the league in average, on-base percentage and slugging against lefties, while the Angels rank in the bottom third in all three categories. — Stuckey

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