MLB Betting Notes for All Five Monday Games on Draft Day
Gerry Angus-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Nick Tropeano
It’s MLB Draft Day, when a number of franchises will draft a player who will become a household name over the next few years. Just take a look at some of the now well-known players taken in the 2011 MLB Draft:
Man, do I miss watching Jose on the bump. RIP.
Pick of the draft: Mookie Betts in the fifth round. Absolute steal.
Another pitcher taken in that draft not listed above is the Angels’ Nick Tropeano (160th overall in the fifth round by the Astros), who will get the start Monday night against the Royals. Let’s take a look at that matchup and the four other games on a very light card. We’ll start with the sole afternoon game — the first of a day-night doubleheader between the Yankees and Tigers. In the first game, the Yanks will pit one of the best starters in the game against Drew VerHagen, who will make his first start of 2018 after getting called up from the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens.
New York Yankees (-225) at Detroit Tigers (+201) | O/U: 8
Luis Severino (8-1, 2.31 ERA) vs. Drew VerHagen (0-1, 6.30 ERA)
1:10 p.m. ET
The Yankees have won nine consecutive Severino starts. In those games, Severino owns an ERA of 1.95, going at least six innings in each. Over the past two seasons, the Yankees have a stellar 31-12 record when Severino takes the mound. However, he has netted bettors a profit of only 6.8 units during that span, due to an average moneyline of -152 in those 43 starts.
As the betting favorite, the Yankees have won 16 consecutive games with Severino starting. If you go back even further, they’ve won 21 of his last 22 starts, by an average of 3.7 runs per game.
The weather forecast calls for breezy conditions for both games of the Yankees-Tigers doubleheader, with winds projected at more than 10 mph. This season, the over is actually 1-7 at Comerica Park with winds at 10 mph or higher, but that hasn’t been the trend in previous seasons.
Between 2005 and 2017, the over in Detroit has gone 132-96-16 (57.9%) when the average wind speed is 10 mph or higher. Over bettors would have netted 32.3 units over that period, making Comerica the third-most profitable over stadium in this situation. During that span, overs hit more often at night (61.5% vs. 55.5%) with this trend. — Evan Abrams
New York Yankees (-200) at Detroit Tigers (+179) | O/U: 10
Domingo Germán (0-3, 5.45 ERA) vs. Mike Fiers (4-3, 4.45 ERA)
7:10 p.m. ET
One doubleheader betting strategy involves wagering on the team that won Game 1 if it’s favored in the next game. Since 2005, that approach has gone 104-66 (61%) for a profit of +10.26 units. The return on investment looks even better if you isolate just road favorites: 38-18 (68%) for +12.96 units and a 23% ROI. If the Yankees win Game 1, they would fit the mold. — John Ewing
Fun Fact: The Yankees (37-17, .685) sit in first place in the AL East despite trailing the Red Sox (41-19, .683) by one game in the standings. The reason? They have a better win percentage. We haven’t seen a team with the best record in baseball sit in second place in its division since the Reds in 1967. — Stuckey
Kansas City Royals (+165) at LA Angels (-184) | O/U: 8.5
Danny Duffy (2-6, 5.71 ERA) vs. Nick Tropeano (3-3, 3.80 ERA)
10:07 p.m. ET
After struggling mightily through his first 10 starts of the season, Duffy has found some rhythm. In his past two outings, he’s allowed only two earned runs on eight hits and six walks, while striking out nine in 13.2 innings. Those numbers aren’t dominant but represent a step in the right direction for the southpaw, who had been lit up like a Christmas tree in his six previous outings.
Although his velocity has decreased from a few seasons ago, Duffy has thrown just about as hard (actually a smidgen harder) than he did last year. The main issue has been his control. After walking 2.52 batters per nine innings last year and 2.1 in 2016, the 29-year-old has handed out 4.31 BB/9 through 64.2 innings in 2018. Even during his current decent two-game stretch, he still managed to walk six batters in those 13.2 innings. No bueno. Until Duffy gets his free pass habit in check, I can’t trust him. — Michael Leboff
In 32 career starts for the Angels and Astros, Tropeano has been listed as a favorite of -150 or higher only three times — all with Los Angeles. Tropeano owns a 3-0 record in those games, with the Angels as a team allowing only four total runs.
However, you may want to stay clear of Tropeano or look at the under. After starting the season 3-0 against left-handed starters, the Angels are just 2-9 in their last 11. They’ve scored three runs or fewer in eight of those 11. — Evan Abrams
Atlanta Braves (+104) at San Diego Padres (-114) | O/U: 7.5
Julio Teheran (4-3, 4.03 ERA) vs. Clayton Richard (3-6, 4.74 ERA)
10:10 p.m. ET
Richard might have a long night at Petco. Not only has Atlanta raked against lefties all year, but Richard has a career 0-6 record with a 6.75 ERA and 1.92 WHIP in nine games (six starts) against the Braves. Most of those starts came against completely different rosters, but Nick Markakis and Freddie Freeman are a combined 7-for-17 against Richard. –Stuckey
The Braves have started hot out of the gates and sit atop the NL East at 35-24. In Teheran’s career, Atlanta has been much more profitable to bettors when the Braves are playing well. Atlanta is 34-19 (+11.4 units) in Teheran starts when the Braves have a win percentage above 55%. However, when Atlanta has a win percentage of 55% or less, the Braves are just 55-61 (-3 units). — Evan Abrams
Arizona Diamondbacks (+106) at San Francisco Giants (-116) | O/U: 8
Zack Godley (5-4, 4.38 ERA) vs. Derek Holland (3-6, 4.94 ERA)
10:10 p.m. ET
Godley had an ugly May, and his recent form is quite poor. Using FantasyLabs’ batted-ball data, we see that opponents have an exit velocity of 96 mph off him over the past 15 days, and he’s also allowed a hard-hit percentage of 54%. Both of those measures are the highest of any of the 10 pitchers on the slate.
By using their trends tool tool, we can see how pitchers with this poor of batted-ball data have historically performed on average.
- 95+ MPH EV: -2.21, 44.1% consistency
- 50+% HH: -1.81, 44.1% consistency
- BOTH: -3.19, 41.1% consistency
When you factor in that he will pitch on the road, the Plus/Minus drops to nearly -4, while the consistency decreases to 36.3%. Not good. — Mark Gallant
With that said, Godley did deliver in his only start at AT&T Park this season, pitching seven shutout innings with nine strikeouts and zero walks. Before that start, though, he owned a career 7.84 ERA against the Giants. You might see Hunter Pence, who just came off the DL. The San Francisco outfielder is 4-for-7 with two bombs in his career against Godley. — Stuckey