MLB Odds & Best Bets: Our Staff’s Top Picks for Reds vs. Diamondbacks, Angels vs. Rangers & Padres vs. Brewers (Tuesday, April 20)
Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes
- Tuesday brings with it a packed MLB slate and plenty of betting value on the board.
- Our staff took notice of that and broke down six bets, including three different late games from the slate.
- Check out each individual pick complete for Tuesday below.
It's a busy slate in Major League Baseball on Tuesday, with every team in action plus one doubleheader out west between the Minnesota Twins and Oakland Athletics.
A busy slate means a lot of action, and our team of analysts has found quite a bit of it. They have found six bets to recommend for Tuesday, including three moneyline underdogs, a first five total, a team total, and even a run line.
Below, you will find our staff's six best bets from Tuesday's MLB slate.
MLB Odds & Picks
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Seattle Mariners
Sean Zerillo: Near the end of the Mariners-Dodgers game on Monday night, I had my mouse hovered over Seattle's moneyline for Tuesday — ready to fire. I projected the Mariners' odds at 41.9% (implied +139) given the reliever usage to that point in and would have bet Tuesday's game either way — but a late injury caused me to increase my bet size.
Mookie Betts was hit by a pitch near the end of Monday's game. When Betts could barely take his batting glove off of his hand in those final moments, it was pretty evident that the Dodgers' star outfielder won't be available for Tuesday afternoon's contest — a day game following a night game. Betts took a direct hit to the forearm and will likely be sore for a few days, at minimum.
My initial projection for the Dodgers (-139) assumed that Betts would be in the Tuesday lineup, and I would still bet Seattle moneyline down to +158, either way, at a three-percent edge.
Without Betts in the Dodgers' lineup, I would drop their odds to -124 and bet Seattle down to +140 at a three-percent edge.
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds
Kenny Ducey: It’s time to admit that Luis Castillo might not be the exciting young pitcher that he was in 2017. The right-hander has looked incredibly hittable this season, and has lost 1.7 mph off his four-seam fastball, according to Statcast, despite throwing it 4% more frequently so far this year. As a result, he ranks in the 31st percentile in whiff rate, and his strikeout rate has gone down 12.6%.
These are just early numbers, and there’s always time to turn things around when we’re having a discussion in late April, but I think there’s plenty of merit in riding these numbers until they turn around. Castillo getting knocked around by the Cardinals on Opening Day was at least understandable, but bad outings against bad lineups like the Pirates and Giants have to have even the most confident Castillo backers worried.
While Castillo, 28, may be hitting a speedbump in his career, Zac Gallen, 25, is very much in the ascendancy. He struck out eight Oakland Athletics in a stellar four-inning stint in his first start of the year last week, carrying over the strong numbers we saw him post last year. He’s got just a 6.5% barrel rate for his career, and a .293 xwOBA. The Reds have cooled off since their hot start, and shouldn’t be in for a fun day against Gallen. On the other hand, I see plenty of reasons to believe Castillo will struggle. The Snakes are great value here.
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
Brad Cunningham: This is a fantastic matchup for an Angels lineup that is off to a hot start this season. Los Angeles already has a .265 batting average and 117 wRC+ as a team, with most of that success coming against right-handed pitching. The Angels are fifth in wOBA against righties so far this season, which really isn't a surprise since they ranked seventh in 2020. They also hit off-speed pitches incredibly well, ranking inside the top 10 of MLB against every pitch besides fastballs.
They'll be going up against a weak starting pitcher in Jordan Lyles, who last season posted the worst season of his career. He put up a 7.02 ERA, 5.92 xFIP and gave 12 home runs in only 12 appearances. His curveball and slider were actually pretty effective last year, as opposing hitters only hit .238 combined off those two pitches. His biggest problem, though, is his fastball.
Lyles’ fastball is slow and doesn't have a lot of movement, so if he is missing his location, opposing hitters tee off on it. He allowed a .441 wOBA to opposing hitters on his fastball, so even though the Angels don't particularly hit fastballs well, they should be able to hit Lyles' fastball, plus all of his off-speed pitches, effectively.
I have the Angels projected for 5.47 runs tonight, so I think there is plenty of value on their team total Over 4.5 runs at -125 odds.
Texas Rangers vs. Los Angeles Angels
DJ James: Jordan Lyles has given up 2-3 runs in each of his three starts, and he has not faced an offense the caliber of Los Angeles yet. On the other side, Shohei Ohtani dazzled in his only start against the White Sox, an offense which is far more talented than the Texas Rangers. Texas maintains an 86 wRC+ as a team and has the worst strikeout rate in baseball at 28.6%. Ohtani has 73 strikeouts in his 73 innings pitched as a major leaguer.
Given how Lyles allows an average exit velocity of 94.1 mph in four starts, the Angels' lineup should get to him early. With Ohtani on the hill, the Rangers will not be able to put up the offense they did Monday. Give the run and take the Halos to -110.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Matt Trebby: Corbin Burnes has given up one run over 18 1/3 innings this season, and the Brewers are 1-2 when he pitches.
At plus money, I’m willing to bet on that changing on Tuesday night.
Burnes’ 0.49 ERA and 0.86 FIP indicate he’s poised to compete for the NL Cy Young Award this season. His WHIP is 0.22. He has allowed four hits and no walks — remember, over 18 1/3 innings.
The Brewers' stud will start opposite Chris Paddack, whose 4.15 ERA and 2.94 FIP indicate he’s poised to bounce back from what he’ll consider a disappointing sophomore season in 2020.
Milwaukee’s lineup is struggling at the moment and is without Christian Yelich, and San Diego has plenty of pop at the top of its lineup, but in a matchup that could see both starters pitch deep into it, I’m going to back the team with the better one.
Milwaukee Brewers vs. San Diego Padres
Mike Ianniello: Burnes Day is becoming the new Bieber Day for me this season. The first five under is 3-0 in Corbin Burnes starts this year as he is turning into a legit Cy Young candidate for the Brewers. Through his first three outings, Burns has allowed just one run and four total hits, and has racked up 30 strikeouts.
Burnes 0.49 ERA and 48.4 K% are both second in the league, only behind Jacob deGrom. Burnes actually has the best xFIP in baseball though, with a 1.18 xFIP. Opponents are batting just .067 against him.
The right-hander throws a devastating 96 mph cutter that he throws 50% of the time. He uses hit cutter along with a curveball, slider, sinker and changeup to pound the bottom of the zone and produce swings and misses.
The Brewers have struggled offensively to start the year, and will be without Christian Yelich, who was placed on the injured list with a back injury. Milwaukee is 23rd in the league in batting average and 26th in wOBA against right-handed pitching, which is what they will face in Chris Paddack for San Diego.
I like this one to be a pitcher’s duel early with Corbin Burnes continuing to look unhittable and the Brewers' bats staying quiet against Paddack. I would back the first five under 3.5 down to -125.
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