MLB Odds and Picks: Reds vs. Brewers Betting Predictions (Saturday, August 8)

Credit:

Norm Hall/Getty Images. Pictured: Anthony DeSclafani

Cincinnati Reds vs. Milwaukee Brewers Odds

Reds Odds -110 [Bet Now]
Brewers Odds -107 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 9 (-107/-114) [Bet Now]
First Pitch 7:10 p.m. ET 

Odds as of Saturday at 1 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


With the Cubs starting to run away with the NL Central, Saturday’s game between the Reds and Brewers has some serious oomph since neither team will want to fall too far behind the Cubbies.

Both teams are sending a back-end of starter to the mound, so Saturday’s game should feature some runs.


Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.


Cincinnati Reds

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs

The Reds’ offense has been mediocre so far with a .311 wOBA and 97 wRC+. They’ve been led by Nick Castellanos, who has been the best hitter in baseball to begin the season.

Castellanos leads MLB with a .515 wOBA and seven home runs in his first 14 games. He also smashed left-handed pitching last season with the Cubs, so he’s probably a good DFS play today, if you’re into that sort of thing.

Reds Projected Starter

Anthony DeSclafani, RHP

Projected Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Anthony DeSclafani took a step back in 2019, posting an xFIP of 4.30, which is the highest of his career. However, all of his pitches were pretty effective keeping hitters under a .330 wOBA. He does a really good job mixing up his arsenal of pitches to keep hitters off balance.

Even though it allowed the highest wOBA among all of his pitches, his fastball is probably his best pitch. It has great horizontal movement and he’s able to easily switch between his four- and two-seam fastball depending on the hitter.

Milwaukee Brewers

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs

The Brewers offense has been a bit quiet to begin the season with only a .294 wOBA and 87 wRC+. The need to get their star, Christian Yelich, going as he only has a .275 wOBA out of the gates. Milwaukee’s lineup took a hit with Lorenzo Cain opting out for the season.

Brewers Projected Starter

Brett Anderson, LHP

Projected Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Brett Anderson’s age is starting to show. In 2019, he posted some of the worst numbers of his career, including a 4.79 xFIP.

The reason for his step back in 2019 can be contributed to his sinker. Anderson uses it as his primary pitch, throwing it 43.8% of the time.

Opponents were a lot more successful against it in 2019 compared to 2018 as his wOBA against rose by 0.051 points.

Anderson doesn’t project out well at 0.59 BaseRuns per inning, so the Reds should have good opportunity put across a lot of Runs on Saturday.

Bullpens

Eric Lauer only lasted three innings last night, so the Brewers bullpen was called on for six innings, meaning they’ll be a tad thin Saturday night.

The Reds bullpen should be fully stocked and rested after Trevor Bauer’s performance last night.

Projections and Pick

I have 9.88 runs projected for this game with Anderson and DeSclafani on the hill, so I am going the back Over 9 runs at -107 or better.

Pick: Over 9 runs (-107)

[Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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