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Wednesday MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies (Sept. 2)

Wednesday MLB Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions: San Francisco Giants vs. Colorado Rockies (Sept. 2) article feature image

Photo by Rob Leiter/MLB Photos via Getty Images. Pictured: Mike Yastrzemski #5 of the San Francisco Giants

  • The San Francisco Giants (+115 underdogs) face off with the Colorado Rockies (-136 favorites) on Wednesday afternoon.
  • Check out our full game breakdown, including updated odds, picks and predictions.

Giants vs. Rockies Betting Odds

Giants Odds +115 [Bet Now]
Rockies Odds -136 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 11 (-120/-103) [Bet Now]
First Pitch 3:10 p.m. ET

Odds as of Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

After a 23-run outburst last night, the Giants will look to get back to .500 as they send Logan Webb to the mound to face Kyle Freeland. The Rockies need to figure out something and quickly because their chances of making the playoffs are slipping away quickly after their third straight loss last night.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning.

Giants Projected Lineup

The Giants offense had been on fire even before its 23-run outburst last night. In their last 12 games, the Giants have hit 17 home runs, which has contributed to a .346 wOBA and 120 wRC+. Mike Yastrzemski has been on fire this season, accumulating a .404 wOBA with seven home runs and 24 RBIs.

Most of the Giants’ success this season has come against left-handed pitching, as they have a .344 wOBA and 120 wRC+, which ranks eighth in MLB. San Francisco has been mostly successful against fastballs and changeups this season, which matches up well against Freeland since those are his two main pitches.

Giants Probable Starter

Logan Webb, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Webb has had an average start to 2020, posting a 4.24 xFIP through his first seven starts. Webb is the Giants sixth-rated prospect, who sports an average fastball with an above average slider and changeup. His fastball has been getting rocked so far this season to the tune of a .385 wOBA, but his slider and changeup have been really good, holding opponents below a .200 average.

The Rockies are the 29th-ranked team in MLB against changeups, so I expect Webb to utilize his best pitch a lot on Wednesday afternoon.

Rockies Projected Lineup

The Rockies offense has been fairly average, with a .317 wOBA and 82 wRC+. It has been in a slump over the past two weeks, hitting only .241 with a .294 wOBA. Colorado may have the best 2-3-4 hitters in baseball, but after Story, Blackmon and Arenado, its lineup drops off a cliff. The rest of the Rockies lineup will need to step up if Colorado is going to make a run at the playoffs.

Rockies Probable Starter

Kyle Freeland, LHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Freeland has been solid so far this season, but he’s been getting hit hard as his hard-hit rate is all the way up at 43.6%. Other than his changeup none of his pitches have been very effective, as they are all allowing a wOBA over .300. Freeland may have a 3.43 ERA but his xFIP is 3.97, which is actually the lowest of his career. I think going up against a red-hot Giants lineup that hits lefties well could cause some negative regression.


Both bullpens have been a disaster so far this season, as they both rank in the bottom half of MLB in terms of ERA and xFIP. Colorado’s bullpen will be especially tired after giving up 16 earned runs last night.

Projections and Pick

I think San Francisco matches up well against Freeland, who is due for some negative regression. However, the Giants bullpen has been so awful to this point that I want to avoid it at all costs.

So, I am going to back Webb and the Giants for the first five innings at +108, but I wouldn’t go any higher than that number.

Pick: Giants First Five Innings +108 [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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