MLB Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: Pirates vs. Brewers (Saturday, August 29)

Credit:

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images. Pictured: Ben Gamel.

  • The Brewers and Pirates play Saturday after Milwaukee cruised to a victory on Friday.
  • Michael Arinze is taking the Brewers on the run line.
  • Check out Arinze's full preview with odds, picks, and predictions ahead of the game.

Pirates vs. Brewers Odds

Pirates Odds +160 [Bet Now]
Brewers Odds -190 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 9 (-108/-112) [Bet Now]
First Pitch 7:10 p.m. ET

Odds as of Saturday at 2:30 p.m. ET via Parx, which offers new customers a 20% profit boost + $500 risk-free wager on their first bet AND your bets automatically sync to the Action app. Learn more about BetSync here.


After scoring just one run in Thursday’s double-header against the Cincinnati Reds, the Milwaukee Brewers erupted for nine runs on Friday in the opening game of a four-game series with the Pittsburgh Pirates.

The Brewers remain tied with the Reds at 14-17 and trail the division-leading Cubs by four games in the National League Central. Yesterday, the Reds defeated the Cubs 6-5, extending Chicago’s losing streak to three games. The Cubs vs. Reds divisional series ensures that the Brewers can pick up some games in the standings, provided that they take care of business against the lowly Pittsburgh Pirates.

This hasn’t gone unnoticed in the Brewers clubhouse.

Before Friday’s game, Milwaukee held a hitter’s meeting where they vowed to look at their remaining 29 games as a September run. Milwaukee has a history of mounting late regular season rallies into the postseason.

Milwaukee looks more focused now than at any other point this season, and that could spell trouble for a Pirates team that appears to be limping towards the finish line.


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Pittsburgh Pirates

When the Pittsburgh Pirates swept the Brewers at home last Sunday , JT Brubaker was making his third career start. Brubaker went four innings and didn’t factor in the decision when the Pirates rallied with two runs in the eight to win 5-4. That was the rookie’s first time facing Milwaukee, and you could argue that the hitters’ lack of familiarity gave Brubaker the upper hand in the matchup. Milwaukee only managed four hits and two RBIs in 17 plate appearances against Brubaker.

On the season, Brubaker is 0-0 with a 4.80 ERA and a 3.49 FIP. While his FIP is above average, we must consider that he’s only pitched 15 innings. Furthermore, his raw home run total is used as opposed to his fly ball rate and the league home run-to-flyball average. In this instance, I feel his 4.58 xFIP is a better indicator of Brubaker’s aptitude and is also more in line with his 4.49 SIERA.

This will be the first time a team gets a second look at Brubaker, and in the big leagues, it’s all about making adjustments.

We’ll know tonight if JT Brubaker is up to the challenge.

Milwaukee Brewers

Brett Anderson is one person that shouldn’t receive any blame for last weekend’s sweep at the hand of the Pirates. For one, Anderson didn’t start or throw a single pitch in the series. He did, however, earn the start in Milwaukee’s very next game and delivered his second consecutive quality start in a 4-2 win against Trevor Bauer and the Cincinnati Reds. Anderson’s performance put an end to a Milwaukee four-game losing streak.

Now, Anderson draws the start against the Pirates. He reports a 3-1 career record and a 2.73 ERA when facing Pittsburgh. Anderson has yet to surrender a home run against the current Pirates lineup, but Pittsburgh batters have a .296 / .367 / .407 slash line against him.

While he does report a 4.98 FIP this season, much of that is due to his 1.57 HR/9 ratio. Anderson gave up two home runs in his last start but was able to limit the damage with both of them being solo shots. His 2.65 GB/FB ratio is also encouraging, and he’s been able to strand 83.3% of the runners that get on base.

Admittedly, Anderson’s start to the season was a bit rocky. The Brewers were losers in each of his first three appearances, and the left-hander was unable to make it through five innings in each of those starts.

However, his recent resurgence shouldn’t go unnoticed. Two starts ago, he held a dangerous Minnesota Twins team to just one run over six innings.

Betting Analysis

If you’re a Brewers fan you should be please to learn of the Brewers “hitter’s only” meeting prior to yesterday’s game. Not only was there intent and purpose there, but it was followed up by action.

I’m not too sure what the Pirates have to play for at this point. Perhaps it’s pride, but that alone may not be sufficient to match the will of the Brewers. Milwaukee looks more focused and has had success in this situational spot. Historically, the Brewers are 57-46 for +10.64 units when they won their previous game by eight or more runs. Milwaukee is 7-1 for +6.19 units over its last eight games in this situational spot.

Conversely, the Pirates are 48-84 for -26.15 units when they’ve lost by eight or more runs in the previous game. Pittsburgh is also 1-6 for -4.87 units in their last seven games in this spot.

All things point to Milwaukee in this matchup, and at the current price I’ll look to play Milwaukee on an ALT run line.

Parx Casino is one of few books where you can get a run line at -1. You can grab that at -136 odds, and with a Brewers win of two or more runs, you’ll cash your ticket.

By playing a run line, we’re simply being risk-averse and minimizing the juice on our bankroll. I still think Milwaukee gets the job done comfortably at home in Miller Park.

Pick: Brewers -1 run line (-136). Play up to -145.

[Bet the Milwaukee Brewers -1 run line at -113 odds with a 20% profit boost at Parx]

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