Athletics-Rangers Betting Preview: Is This Game Really a Toss-Up?

Jul 24, 2018 1:15 PM EDT

Betting Odds: Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers

  • Athletics (Frankie Montas): -106
  • Rangers (Mike Minor): -104
  • Over/under: 11 (u-115)
  • First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of 3:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets


Tonight’s A’s-Rangers line is just a hair off a pick’em, which you’d generally assume to mean that the two teams’ records roughly in the same ballpark. But take a gander at the AL West standings and you’ll notice, well, not so much.

Oakland is 16 games up on the Rangers, whose 42-59 record ranks 25th in the bigs. Still, oddsmakers are calling this game a toss-up, which, as you probably could’ve guessed, has drawn bettors to the A’s.

Seventy-nine percent of bettors, in fact, are behind Oakland, but the A’s have actually fallen from -123 to -106. That sharp action on Texas has put the Rangers in a profitable spot this evening.

Since 2005, teams that have fit the following criteria …

  • Fewer than 25% of bets
  • Listed at minus-money
  • Significant line move in their favor (more than 10 cents)
  • Significantly worse win percentage than their opponent (at least 10 % worse)

… have gone 44-21, winning 19.4 units for a 29.8% return on investment.

The Rangers also happen to fall into the most profitable section of the “minus-money” range. Using the same criteria above but limiting the moneyline range to between -110 to -100 increases the ROI to 33.2%.

So I guess public bettors may be right that this game shouldn’t be referred to as a toss-up. They’re just taking the wrong side of it.

The bet: Rangers -104

Credit:

Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rougned Odor and Jurickson Profar

Follow Danny Donahue on Twitter
@dannyjdonahue

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