Ray Carlin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Rougned Odor and Jurickson Profar
Betting Odds: Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
- Athletics (Frankie Montas): -106
- Rangers (Mike Minor): -104
- Over/under: 11 (u-115)
- First pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
>> All odds as of 3:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets
Tonight’s A’s-Rangers line is just a hair off a pick’em, which you’d generally assume to mean that the two teams’ records roughly in the same ballpark. But take a gander at the AL West standings and you’ll notice, well, not so much.
Oakland is 16 games up on the Rangers, whose 42-59 record ranks 25th in the bigs. Still, oddsmakers are calling this game a toss-up, which, as you probably could’ve guessed, has drawn bettors to the A’s.
Seventy-nine percent of bettors, in fact, are behind Oakland, but the A’s have actually fallen from -123 to -106. That sharp action on Texas has put the Rangers in a profitable spot this evening.
Since 2005, teams that have fit the following criteria …
- Fewer than 25% of bets
- Listed at minus-money
- Significant line move in their favor (more than 10 cents)
- Significantly worse win percentage than their opponent (at least 10 % worse)
… have gone 44-21, winning 19.4 units for a 29.8% return on investment.
The Rangers also happen to fall into the most profitable section of the “minus-money” range. Using the same criteria above but limiting the moneyline range to between -110 to -100 increases the ROI to 33.2%.
So I guess public bettors may be right that this game shouldn’t be referred to as a toss-up. They’re just taking the wrong side of it.
The bet: Rangers -104