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Tuesday MLB Betting Picks: Best Bets for Blue Jays vs. Orioles, Tigers vs. White Sox, Cardinals vs. Cubs

Tuesday MLB Betting Picks: Best Bets for Blue Jays vs. Orioles, Tigers vs. White Sox, Cardinals vs. Cubs article feature image

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  • Looking for quick MLB bets ahead of Tuesday's slate? Our experts break down their favorites.
  • We're looking at three totals, including one team total.

Whether it be for pitching matchups, umpire tendencies or the effects of Mother Nature, Tuesday’s baseball slate has each of our experts looking toward over/unders in some capacity.

Find our best bets for the following games below.

MLB Best Bets for Tuesday

  • Blue Jays vs. Orioles (7:35 p.m. ET)
  • Tigers vs. White Sox (8:10 p.m. ET)
  • Cardinals vs. Cubs (8:15 p.m. ET)

Note: All odds as of 11:45 a.m. ET. Get live MLB odds here.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BJ Cunningham: Blue Jays Team Total Over 5.5 (+105) vs. Orioles

Wade LeBlanc has been a disaster through his first four starts, allowing 17 earned runs in only 21 innings of work. This is not all unexpected, though, as he finished 2019 with a 5.10 xFIP.

LeBlanc is a soft-tossing lefty, who primarily uses a changeup-cutter-sinker combination. His changeup is by far his best pitch, allowing a .287 wOBA to opponents last season. His sinker and cutter aren’t very effective as each produced a whiff rate under 15% and a wOBA over .350 in 2019. So far this season, his changeup and cutter have been fairly effective, but his sinker has already been smoked for two home runs and a double only 56 pitches.

Toronto has been on fire over the past seven days, with a .390 wOBA and 150 wRC+. The Jays have also smacked 19 home runs, which is the most in the majors over that span. That doesn’t bode well for Wade LeBlanc who had a 2.08 HR/9 rate in 2019 and has already surrendered four so far this season.

The Blue Jays have been average against lefties this season, but they match up well against LeBlanc’s pitch arsenal. Toronto ranks ninth so far this season against changeups and 12th against cutters. Also, in 2019, the Blue Jays were the best team in MLB against sinkers with 6.8 weighted sinker runs.

I have the Blue Jays projected for 6.22 runs in this game, so there’s some value on their team total over 5.5 at +105.

Collin Wilson: Tigers vs. White Sox Over 9 (+102)

The projected number lands just short of 9 in this contest, making this mathematically a low-financial stake. But what makes the difference in the bet is our umpire in combination with a pitcher who has never faced competition above the Double-A level.

Tarik Skubal takes the mound for the Tigers after a filthy 2019 campaign with the Erie Seawolves. When I say filthy, I mean Skubal struck-out 82 batters in 42.1 innings pitched. Tigers fans should be delighted to see this kind of talent hit the major league level, but Chicago is seeing the ball well against lefties. The White Sox are fifth in wRC+ and fourth in ISO against southpaws, meaning Skubal is going to get hit for extra bases.

Dylan Cease and his 5.35 xFIP should be enough reason to lay the over, but some help from behind the plate never hurts. Umpire David Rackley likes runs in his ball games, going 114-81-13 to the over when he is behind the plate. Betting the over on Rackley-called games would net 26.8 units.

Although the projections put this game on the number, the circumstances all point to an over on the south side of Chicago Tuesday night.

Danny Donahue: Cardinals vs. Cubs Under 8 (-113)

Apologies if you’ve heard this spiel before, but any time the wind is blowing in at 10 mph at Wrigley, you can be pretty sure of what my favorite bet for the night will be.

In our database (since 2005), MLB games in which the wind has blown in from centerfield at 5 or more mph have gone 905-744-84 (54.9%) to the under, winning 102.6 units for a 5.9% return on investment. And Wrigley Field has been at the top of the list of most affected-by-wind stadiums.

Over the same span, such games at Wrigley have gone 96-62-10 (60.8%) to the under, winning 27.9 units for a 16.6% ROI.

Tuesday night’s forecast is calling for a steady 10-11 mph breeze blowing directly in from center, so my decision is pretty much made for me.

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