MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/19: Can German Marquez Continue the Rockies’ Winning Streak?
Ron Chenoy, USA Today Sports. Pictured: German Marquez
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 18 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Diamondbacks-Cubs and Rockies-Phillies matchup.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
While you were sleeping last night, the Los Angeles Angels were busy staging the largest comeback of the season, fighting back from a 10-2 deficit to tie the Mariners in the eighth inning:
However, the Angels soon turned to Cody Allen to hold the game there, and he did the most Cody Allen thing imaginable – gave up a ninth-inning run after looking nearly unhittable for two outs.
Once the Angels were down 10-2 (or 4-0, really), I wrote this game off as a loss. To mount such an epic comeback, only to lose the game anyway, is about as anti-climactic as it gets. The late night/early morning sweat was all for naught.
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
The model went 1-0 against full-game moneylines and 0-0-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Thursday.
My actual picks went 2-1-2, and I was up 0.65 U for the day.
We had two unfortunate pushes on F5 plays, as both of Kyle Freeland and Julio Urias dominated — combining to allow three hits and two walks over 12 Innings Pitched, with 16 strikeouts – but their offenses didn’t score for either of them until the sixth inning.
It was another strong day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
I gained 16 cents on the Rockies F5 line (-105 to -121), and 10 cents on their full-game line (-108 to -118). I also gained two cents on the Dodgers F5 line (-110 vs. -112), and three cents on the Diamondbacks line (+150 to +147), but that number did approach +155 before coming back down.
I only lost out on a couple of pennies with the Angels (-120 vs. -118).
On Deck for Friday, April 19
All odds as of Friday morning
The model recommends three full-game moneylines, and one moneyline for the first five innings (F5) on Thursday. It also likes one F5 total.
The 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Diamondbacks, Orioles and Rangers as the full-game moneyline plays. It also likes the Marlins as a F5 play and Over 3.5 runs in the Diamondbacks-Cubs F5 contest.
I’m abstaining from that F5 total today, as 60 percent of tickets are on the Over in that matchup, but nearly 90 percent of the money is on the Under, as of the time of writing. Wrigley field is experiencing 20+ mph winds blowing in this afternoon, and the low total has seen a bunch of sharp action on the Under.
I’m also staying away from the Orioles, who are just not a team that I’m interested in betting on unless they’re playing one of the other worst teams in baseball.
The Orioles are 8-12, with two more wins than the Red Sox, and they have been a profit machine in 2019 but this run is going to end eventually. They have the third-worst run differential amongst all teams (-35) and have allowed the most runs in baseball (123, 6.15 per game).
Lastly, I’m probably avoiding Texas today, too, unless that number continues to climb higher. The Rangers have already beaten Justin Verlander once already this season, as a big (around +220) home underdog, and I don’t think that they will make it two in a row.
However, I do think that I’m ready to go back to the well with Arizona, who is coming off a series (and personal betting) sweep of Atlanta. Arizona will send out 30-year-old rookie Merrill Kelly, who they signed from Korea during the offseason.
Kelly is a strike-thrower (61 percent first-pitch strikes, 1.42 BB/9) who relies on a varied arsenal (four-seam fastball, sinker, cutter or slider, change-up, and curveball) to keep his opponents off balance.
The Cubs will send out Kyle Hendricks, who has struggled to settle into the 2019 season. Going back to 2015, Hendricks has labored over his first three starts of the year, with a 5.06 ERA over 80 combined innings pitched.
Hendricks has admitted that he’s had difficulty finding his fastball command early this season, and perhaps he is just shaking off some spring rust. Maybe he gets back on track today, but I’m happy to grab big plus money on the Diamondbacks again, especially since this will be the Cubs’ first look at Kelly.
The other matchup that I like today is German Marquez and the Rockies at home against Vince Velasquez and the Phillies. Both pitchers were seemingly dominant in their last starts, but Marquez’s performance was more legitimate.
Velasquez carried a no-hitter for 5.2 innings against the Marlins but finished with a mediocre linescore (6 IP, 2 H, 1 R, 3 BB, 4 K, 1 HR). Marquez pitched a one-hitter against the Giants, only surrendering a single to Evan Longoria in the eighth inning (9 IP, 1 H, 0 R, 0 BB, 9 K).
Marquez truly emerged in the second half of the 2018 season: 14 starts, 2.61 ERA, .215 batting average against, 93 IP, 124 strikeouts. He bumped his swinging strike rate from 9.1 percent in 2017, to 12.5 percent in 2018. It remains at 12.3 percent in 2019.
Meanwhile, Vince Velasquez has struggled to miss bats, with a career-low 5.7 percent swinging strike rate this season. The Marlins had several batted balls against him in his last start which would have been over the fence at most MLB stadiums.
I’d prefer to play the Rockies in the F5 market again, as I have them winning the F5 over 60 percent of the time, but winning the game just 57.3 percent of the time.
Lastly, I played Under 9.5 runs in the Dodgers-Brewers matchup. I saw some professional action and big juice on that total, and those teams both play great defense. Fingers crossed that Jhoulys Chacin doesn’t get lit up.
That total is the only wager that I have made so far for today, as I am waiting on the best prices for Arizona and Colorado.
Bets (So Far) for April 19
Thus far, I have locked in:
- Under 9.5, LA Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/19: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.