MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/21: Can Glasnow Continue Dominance for Rays vs. Red Sox?


Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Tampa Bay Rays starting pitcher Tyler Glasnow (20)

Apr 21, 2019, 05:25 AM EDT
  • Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
  • He analyzes the April 21 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Red Sox-Rays and Mets-Cardinals matchups.
  • Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.

Yesterday, we established how we will handle betting on doubleheaders: If the Game 1 favorite wins the first leg and is favored again in Game 2, then it’s a viable play, particularly if it’s the visiting team.

The Minnesota Twins swept both ends of their doubleheader in Baltimore on Saturday, taking a tight first game, 6-5, as a -200 favorite before jumping out to a quick 13-0 lead in the second game as a -140 favorite.

Things got so out of hand that Chris Davis took a turn on the mound for Baltimore:

Imagine being the guy who swung through Chris Davis’s tailing 82 mph heater (Davis maxed out around 86 mph, in case you were wondering).

Another first baseman, Kendrys Morales, took the mound for the Oakland Athletics in their 10-1 blowout loss to the Toronto Blue Jays. Morales flashed his own 85 mph fastball while allowing one run on two walks, a hit batsman, and a sacrifice fly.

Neither Davis nor Morales displayed anywhere near the quality of stuff as the current ace on my dream position player mop-up duty staff, the immortal Pablo Sandoval:

In that same Oakland game that Morales pitched in, A’s reliever Fernando Rodney tied actual immortal, Cy Young, with his 906th career appearance, the fifth most ever by a pitcher with zero career starts.

For a pitcher with 325 saves and a 3.75 ERA, Rodney’s career has defined the word enigmatic.

His 2012 season with Tampa Bay remains one of the best statistical relief pitching seasons in MLB history: 74.2 innings pitched with 48 saves, a 0.777 WHIP, and a 0.60 ERA (on 9 total runs); the second lowest single-season ERA in history (min. 50 IP) only behind Zach (now Zack) Britton (0.54 with the 2016 Orioles).

A three-time all-star who has played with 11 teams over 15 seasons since basically re-starting his career at the age of 28, Rodney has fired his share of arrows and then some.


Recapping Yesterday’s Model

The model went 2-3 against full-game moneylines and 3-1-1 against moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Saturday.

I missed out on two very juicy full game moneyline upsets with Miami (+220) over Washington and Texas (+226) over Houston.

My actual picks went 4-1, but I was only up 0.85 units for the day as a result of playing the Boston-Tampa Bay total (Over 8.5) to win a full unit.

It was another positive day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).

I gained 33 cents on the Phillies F5 moneyline (-115 to -148) and 10 cents on the Cardinals F5 line (-150 to -160), though I lost 13 cents on the Cleveland F5 line (-150 to -137). The total also moved my way, down to 8 runs from 8.5.

On Deck for Sunday, April 21

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