Thursday’s MLB Over/Under: Tigers’ Fulmer Excellent in Day Games

Thursday’s MLB Over/Under: Tigers’ Fulmer Excellent in Day Games article feature image
Credit:

David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Michael Fulmer

I’d been waiting for my first under bet of the season with Kyle Gibson in it for some time — a big-time Zylbert Guy — so I’m happy it delivered. However, we have a vintage James Shields performance to mostly thank. Let’s try to keep the strong run going through Thursday and into the weekend.

2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 54-32-2, +18.5 units
Yesterday’s Result: Twins-White Sox Under 9, Gibson vs. Shields (WIN)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


Oakland Athletics @ Detroit Tigers | O/U: 9
1:10 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Sean Manaea (7-6, 3.40 ERA) vs. Michael Fulmer (3-6, 4.17 ERA)

Oddsmakers curiously keep serving up these softball first-half-of-the-season, daytime unders with Fulmer. Well, I’ll gladly keep catching them, since I enter today 4-0 on the year on over/unders involving the Tigers’ right-hander.

All have happened in the first half of the season and during the day, which is significant considering Fulmer’s glaring splits.

I’ve covered it numerous times already: He’s simply better overall and more consistent this time of year, with a career 21-14 record and 3.20 ERA before the All-Star break. That’s much better than the 3-11 mark and 4.45 ERA he’s posted following the Midsummer Classic. Fulmer is at his stingiest during the day, with a career 2.56 ERA and 1.02 WHIP under the sun versus a 4.46 ERA and 1.28 WHIP at night.

 

In his most recent start — also an under we hit last week — Fulmer didn’t come away with the prettiest final line (5.2 IP, 3 ER), but he was much better than those numbers might indicate. He had a shutout with two outs in the sixth before yielding back-to-back home runs. He also had nine strikeouts to tie his season high. Detroit is fortunately more of a pitcher’s park than Cincinnati, too.

I’ve also long been a big fan of Manaea. I’ve got good feel for his performance and I think the 26-year-old left-hander is back on the upswing.

Manaea started 2018 hot before hitting a rough patch. In fact, the former first-round draft pick allowed at least four runs in all six of his May starts. He’s allowed two runs or fewer in all of his other outings except one — when he gave up three and still notched a quality start in the process.

Point being, Manaea is back on the way up and performing like the All-Star-caliber hurler he can be. This afternoon, he’ll draw a favorable assignment, facing a reeling Tigers team that has not only been struggling at the plate as of late, but it also doesn’t slug many homers. Against left-handed pitching, in fact, Detroit has hit a homer once every 36.7 at-bats, fourth-worst in baseball. That can be very beneficial for Manaea as he’s saddled with a career-high 1.25 HR/9.

Vegas is making a grave mistake with these high Fulmer totals during the daytime, especially when he’s matched up against a pitcher such as Manaea. We’ll make them pay once again, but make sure you get this under bet in as soon as you can with the line at 9.

Play: UNDER 9 (-115)

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