Tuesday MLB Betting Picks, Predictions: Phillies vs. Mets, Cardinals vs. Brewers, More (Sept. 15)
Keith Gillett/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Paul de Jong
For what feels like the first time in a while, Tuesday’s MLB slate consists of a full 15 games with no doubleheaders. And our experts have found a few worth betting.
Find our three favorite spots on the following games below.
- Phillies vs. Mets (7:05 p.m. ET)
- Royals vs. Tigers (7:10 p.m. ET)
- Cardinals vs. Brewers (7:40 p.m. ET)
Note: Odds as of 1 p.m. ET.
Advanced Stats Glossary
FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.
wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.
wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.
Danny Donahue: Mets Moneyline (-126) vs. Phillies
This is a simple case of taking what the market’s giving me, which, in this game, has been very clear.
While only 29% of bettors have taken the Mets, they’ve moved from even-money to the -130 range while generated 83% of actual money hitting this line. And to be sure that this was in fact a profitable spot, I consulted Bet Labs.
Since 2005, teams that have opened no higher than +110 and seen more than 20 cents of movement on less than 35% of bets have gone 65-43 for a 7.2% ROI.
On a far more limited sample (since our money-percentage data only goes back to 2015), filtering that system down only to teams that saw more than a five percentage point difference between bets and money returns a 20-11 record and a 14.2% ROI.
BJ Cunningham: Royals Team Total Over 4.5 (+114) vs. Tigers
Matthew Boyd has been awful so far in 2020, accumulating a 7.63 ERA and 4.62 xFIP through nine starts. For Boyd this season it’s been a strikeout or nothing, as despite his alarming numbers, he’s accumulated a 10.10 K/9 rate.
He’s been really struggling with his fastball and slider, allowing a .310 average to opponents on both pitches. He’s also had major issues keeping the ball in the yard, as his HR/9 is all the way up at 2.43.
Kansas City has had a lot of success against lefties this year. The Royals are hitting for a .276 average and have accumulated a .329 wOBA against lefties, which ranks in the top-10 across MLB. They’ll have a fantastic matchup against Boyd, who has been one of the worst left-handed pitchers in baseball this year, so I like their chances to reach five runs, and am happy to take that bet at plus-money.
Sean Zerillo: Cardinals F5 Moneyline (-164) vs. Brewers
The Cardinals and Brewers played a doubleheader on Monday, but neither team really spoiled their bullpen, so to speak, even though both of Monday’s games went to extra innings.
The Cardinals’ two starters, Kwang-hyun Kim and Daniel Ponce de Leon, pitched a combined 13 of the 16.2 innings played yesterday, while the Brewers used their primarily relievers (Devin Williams, Josh Hader) in Game 1, before their bullpen blew a late lead in Game 2.
Essentially, you can all but hit the reset button for today, which is why I see a much more significant edge on the Cardinals moneyline in the first half of Tuesday’s contest (68.9%), than I do for the full game (projected 61.6%).
Jack Flaherty had to shake off some rust after the Cardinals’ early season brush with a COVID outbreak, but he has rounded back into 2019 form, posting a 3.59 xFIP over six starts. The righty continues to lean heavily upon his fastball (93.8 mph, 55.3%) and slider (84.9 mph, 29.5%) while mixing in a curveball (13.6%) and occasional changeup (1.6%).
Jack Flaherty, 95mph Fastball (foul) and 86mph Slider (sword/k), Overlay. pic.twitter.com/YEbBN78bzR
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) August 29, 2020
Brewers starter Brett Anderson has carried an xFIP over 4.5 for the past two seasons, and his fastball velocity (89.5 mph) has reached a career low in 2020.
Anderson hasn’t really shown a split throughout his career (.322 wOBA vs. LHH; .318 wOBA vs. RHH) but he presents a solid matchup for the Cardinals offense — which ranks fourth against lefties with a 134 wRC+ (compared to 19th vs. RHP with a 97 wRC+).
I set the Cardinals F5 moneyline odds at -222 for Tuesday, and I would risk one unit up to -190 (implied 65.5%) which represents a 3.4% edge compared to my projection.