Rockies-Astros Betting Preview: Using Historical Data and Bet Signals to Find Value

Betting odds: Houston Astros at Colorado Rockies

• Astros -140 (Gerrit Cole)
• Rockies +130 (Tyler Anderson)
• Over/Under: 10 (u-115)
• First Pitch: 8:40 p.m. ET

>> All odds as of 1 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets

You might not have noticed, but the Colorado Rockies (53-46) are playing good baseball. The Rockies have won seven of their past 10 games and 12 of 15. They have also won five straight at Coors Field and eight of nine in front of the home crowd. All of which has helped the third-place club in the NL West win six straight series, each against teams above .500.

Despite their recent success, the Rockies aren’t getting any love from bettors on Tuesday. Colorado is a +130 underdog at home to the Houston Astros (-140). Nearly 80% of moneyline bets are on the ‘Stros. Should bettors take the defending champs or a third-place team?

Betting Against the Public

We will keep beating this drum because betting against the public is a profitable strategy in baseball. We don’t recommend betting every team getting little support from square bettors, but in certain situations it has been advantageous.

Colorado is 7-3 in its past 10 games, winning on average by 2.2 runs. Using Bet Labs, we find that teams on a hot streak that have a recent score margin average of 1.5 or more runs over 10 games while getting fewer than 30% of moneyline bets have gone 341-399 (46.1%) straight-up since 2005. Even though the teams matching this system have a losing record, a $100 bettor would have returned a profit of $7,755 because we are often wagering on underdogs — such as the Rockies — in this situation.

Sharp Signals

Reverse line movement is when the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages, and a steam move is a sudden line movement across the market caused by an overload of money from respected players. Both are indications of sharp money on a game. There have been multiple reverse line movement and steam move bet signals triggered on the Rockies.

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Bettors aren’t wrong to like Houston. The Astros have an MLB-best 34-15 road record and will send Cole (10-2, 2.52 ERA) to the mound. But there is too much value on the home dogs with historical data and bet signals pointing to the Rockies.