Friday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Brewers-Cardinals, Two Other Games
Harrison Bader. Credit: Jeff Curry-USA TODAY Sport
- Sharp bettors went 1-2-1 with their Thursday plays and look to capitalize on three bets on Friday.
- Fridays are historically the best days of the week to fade the public.
- Sharps are getting down on three contrarian totals tonight.
Wiseguys cashed on their Cubs-Pirates under bet without a sweat, but pushed on the Rockies-Braves under and lost the Cardinals moneyline and the Angels-Rangers under to finish 1-2-1 with their Thursday plays.
Now it’s on to Friday. Historically, today is the best day of the week to fade the public. With recreational bettors wrapping up their work week (and getting their latest paychecks), average Joes are more likely to get down on games, specifically targeting favorites, home teams and overs. This leads to increased ticket counts and elevated contrarian value on dogs, road teams and unders.
After analyzing Friday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 8:15 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. ET.
>> All data as of 2:45 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Chicago Cubs at Pittsburgh Pirates
- Sharp angle: Over 8
- First pitch 7:05 p.m. ET
Last night the Cubs won 1-0, giving wiseguys on the under 8.5 an easy win. Tonight, sharps are getting down the on the total once again, but this time they’re on the over. Public bettors remember last night’s low-scoring game and also likes the ERAs of tonight’s starting pitchers Cole Hamels (1.00 since joining the Cubs) and Trevor Williams (3.66 overall).
As a result, they’re hammering the under at a 70% clip. The total opened at 8.5, and the heavy public betting dropped it to 8. Sharps pounced on a deflated, contrarian over, hitting the over 8 at GT Bets, YouWager and Pinnacle, which triggered a trio of steam and reverse line moves.
It doesn’t hurt that the wind is blowing out to left center at five to seven miles per hour either.
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Milwaukee Brewers at St. Louis Cardinals
- Sharp angle: Under 8
- First pitch 8:15 p.m. ET
Brewers’ starting pitcher Freddy Peralta has an ERA of 4.47 and just gave up seven runs in his last start. With Peralta facing a red-hot Cardinals lineup at home, the public sees an easy over. Sharps, however, disagree.
Despite 79% of bets taking the over, the total has fallen from 8.5 to 8, indicating sharp reverse line movement on the under. Pro players at CRIS and Pinnacle, two of the sharpest offshore books, got down hard on the under 8.5 early.
Then, even though the total fell to 8, Goodfellas at Pinnacle and Greek hammered under 8. The fact that they hit the under again even though the number got worse tells you they are especially confident in the under.
A few added bonuses for under backers: the wind is blowing in from center at five miles per hour, and the under matches the profitable Bet Labs system: Contrarian Unders for Winning Teams (+174.77 units since 2005).
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
- Sharp angle: Under 7.5
- First pitch 10:10 p.m. ET
Public bettors see Robbie Ray (4.38 ERA) going against Joey Lucchesi (3.45 ERA) in a game with a low total and they lean over. However, despite nearly 60% going over, the total has remained frozen, and the juice on the over has fallen from 7.5 over -117 to 7.5 over -106.
This indicates liability on the under, which went from 7.5 under +106 to 7.5 under -104. Sharps at Pinnacle and 5Dimes got down hard on the under 7.5, triggering a pair of reverse line moves across the market.
The wind is blowing in from left field at six miles per hour, and James Hoye is behind the plate, a profitable under ump (+15.37 units) since 2005.
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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