Saturday MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Giants-A’s, 4 Other Games
Cary Edmondson-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Marcus Semien
- Sharps went a perfect 4-0 on MLB picks Friday, which has historically been an excellent day for pros with public money flooding the market.
- Wiseguys have five more MLB plays on Saturday, including four totals.
Wouldn’t it be nice if every day was Friday? Wiseguys sure think so.
As our Josh Appelbaum has pointed out before, Fridays have historically been the best day of the week for sharp bettors. They tend to draw more public action from casual bettors who may not be as involved during the work week, increasing the value in taking contrarian spots and following sharp indicators.
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It’s been a tough baseball season for bettors following sharp action. Good teams have been really good, and bad teams have been really bad, so there haven’t been nearly as many opportunities to cash on underdogs as in years past.
Friday, however, has stayed loyal to sharps.
After a 4-0 sweep last night, Sharp Report plays are now 33-23-3 on Fridays despite being 142-168-6 overall. Wiseguys will hope to keep the second half going strong with five plays on Saturday night.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.
San Diego Padres at Philadelphia Phillies
- Sharp angle: Under 8
- First pitch 7:05 p.m. ET
Not exactly a high-profile pitching matchup here, as Luis Perdomo and Vince Velasquez bring with ERA’s of 7.55 and 4.39, respectively. Perhaps that’s why 69% of bettors are taking this over. I mean, these teams put up 16 runs in Friday’s matchup that featured Jake Arrieta. How could they not hit the over again tonight?
Sharps aren’t sold on that reasoning, though. The forecast in Philly is calling for some rain and heavy wind in from right field, so if this game is played, it won’t feature the best hitting conditions.
Wiseguys at Pinnacle have hit this under twice since opening, driving the total down from its opener of 8.5 despite the majority of bettors on the over.
Pittsburgh Pirates at Cincinnati Reds
- Sharp angle: Under 9
- First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET
They didn’t get much help from the Reds, but the Pirates put up 12 runs in last night’s series opener to single-handedly reach the over.
After that performance, the public is expecting another high-scoring affair on Saturday. Seventy-three percent of bettors are behind this over — the fourth highest percentage on today’s slate — but the total has fallen from 9.5 to 9.
Three sharp bet signals have come on this under to cause the half-run drop, and none have been triggered on the over to this point.
Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers
- Sharp angle: Over 8.5
- First pitch 7:10 p.m. ET
Contrarian overs were a big part of yesterday’s sharp success, accounting for three of the sharp report’s four wins. Here’s another opportunity to cash on a game the public expects to be low scoring.
With Clayton Kershaw on the mound, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that 63% of bettors have taken the under. However, at last update, those bettors accounted for just three percent of dollars wagered on the total.
That number will certainly rise somewhat as more data becomes available, but you get the idea: Bigger, likely sharper wagers are clearly on the over.
The over has also triggered two steam moves, which has caused the total to rise from 8 to 8.5.
Colorado Rockies at Arizona Diamondbacks
- Sharp angle: Under 8
- First pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Only 23% of bettors are expecting this game to stay under eight runs, which is likely due in large part to last night’s 21-run slugfest. By the fourth inning of Friday’s game, the Rockies and D-backs had already accumulated eight runs to surpass the total of 7.5.
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While the total hasn’t actually moved in tonight’s matchup, the juice on the under has gone from +102 to -105 at Pinnacle thanks to three unchallenged steam moves across the market.
San Francisco Giants at Oakland Athletics
- Sharp angle: Athletics -136
- First pitch: 9:05 p.m. ET
The A’s are in rare spot as a contrarian favorite tonight. They’ve only drawn 32% of bettors at -136, which is likely due to the name of the pitcher on the other side. Madison Bumgarner at plus-money just seems too good for the public to pass up.
Despite the public support of MadBum, Oakland has gone from -110 to -136 behind three steam moves and a high money percentage. Despite getting less than a third of bets, the A’s have accounted for 65% of dollars wagered.
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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