Jim Young-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chicago Cubs catcher Willson Contreras
- Casual bettors love the over, and they flood the market right after the MLB All-Star break.
- Unders have cashed at a strong rate, especially ones getting more than 50% of bets.
Baseball bettors have blue balls. I don’t mean to be crude, but the All-Star break has left MLB junkies jonesing for action.
With a full slate on Friday, casual bettors will release their pent-up frustration the only way they know how — by betting favorites and overs.
Fortunately for recreational gamblers, it has been profitable to bet the chalk in the first game after the All-Star break. However, that isn’t the case with the over.
Since 2005, in the first game of the second half, the over has gone 85-104-5 (45%), which has cost a $100 bettor $2,190. And popular overs — those getting more than 50% of tickets — have been even worse at 49-69-5 (42%).
One reason for this trend could be that teams can start their best pitchers after the break and have a rested bullpen, which should help limit the number of runs scored.
I’m not saying you can’t bet the over on Friday (this is a small sample). And for many life is too short to bet the under. Just don’t be surprised if the overs don’t cash immediately when baseball resumes.