MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/12: Can You Trust the Mets in Atlanta?
Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: New York Mets starting pitcher Zack Wheeler
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 12 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Cubs-Angels and Mets-Braves matchups.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Baseball is such a difficult sport to bet on because so many factors come into play during every event over the course of a single game.
Yesterday, we had heavy swirling winds in the Midwest, leading to some high flyballs carrying for home runs. Unfortunately, we also had a litany of outfielders who struggled to track well-hit baseballs that did stay in play, leading to a lot of strange baseball.
If you had a moneyline ticket on the Royals yesterday, you already know what I’m talking about. Hopefully, Billy Hamilton’s knee is okay.
No matter how hard you try to nail this down this sport, you can’t possibly factor everything into consideration. Sometimes, you’re going to take a big swing and make a complete fool out of yourself:
We just have to keep taking our cuts efficiently, and eventually, we’re going to have a big day again.
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
The model went 1-5 yesterday. The Mets won, but the Marlins, Royals, and Pirates each lost their games, and the Dodgers dropped the first five innings (F5) to the Cardinals in heartbreaking fashion; giving away two separate three-run leads on a day where Walker Buehler simply didn’t have his command.
In the third inning alone, Buehler allowed four runs on a hit batsman, a sacrifice fly, and a two-run wild pitch.
I was happy to have missed the train on that Royals loss, as I couldn’t have mentally handled that bad beat after Hamilton’s two-out, ninth-inning drop on what was generously scored as a Triple for Mitch Haniger.
We also lost the game total (7) in the Colorado – San Francisco matchup, as those teams managed to score just one run between them.
It was another mixed day in terms of generating Closing Line Value (CLV).
The Dodgers F5 line closed at -145 or even -150 at some books, so we were on the right side there (though the line did dip to -135 for a point).
I timed the Pirates line correctly (+125 vs. +114), but gave some of that back with the Mets (+116 vs. +118) and the Marlins (+152 vs. +157).
The total in that Rockies-Giants game did move up to 7.5, but with heavy juice on the under (-125).
On Deck for Friday 4/11
All odds as of early Friday morning.
The model recommends five full-game moneylines, and six moneylines for the first five innings (F5) on Friday.
The 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Angels, Marlins, Mets, Royals, and Pirates as the full game plays. It also likes the Angels, Blue Jays, Marlins, Mets, Rangers, and Mariners as F5 plays.
The current game total of 10.5 or 11 in the Angels-Cubs contest is due to strong winds blowing out in that game. The model projects 8.4 runs on a normal day at Wrigley field, but I wouldn’t mess with that game in the wind.
In the early game, I like the F5 moneyline for the Angels. We’ve been taking shots against Cole Hamels and the Cubs all season long, and I don’t see any reason to change that today.
The Angels continue to be undervalued, both in a general sense and without Mike Trout in their lineup. In actuality, Trout’s absence only harms their chances in any game by about two percent in my projections.
Similar to the line with the Dodgers yesterday, I feel that this Angels line should be shaded towards them for the F5 side, and it isn’t. If anything, they’re about 5 cents higher in the F5 market.
At the same price, I see a larger edge for the Angels in the F5 market. I have them at a coin flip to win the first five-innings (49.94%), but just 47 percent likely to win the full game, as Tyler Skaggs should outpitch Hamels.
There are a lot of other potential plays today, and I will need more time to go through the entire late slate in order to narrow down my selections.
Of all of those potential plays, I will likely be on the Mets again, either F5 or for the full game, receiving plus-money at Atlanta with Zack Wheeler going against Kyle Wright (a rookie who I like a lot, but who is not nearly at Wheeler’s level yet).
Bets (So Far) for April 12
Thus far, I have locked in:
- LA Angels F5 Moneyline (+155)
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/12: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.