MLB Daily Betting Model, 4/10: Still Value on the Angels Without Mike Trout?
Credit: Kirby Lee-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Brian Goodwin, Mike Trout
- Sean Zerillo's MLB model helps to find edges in betting moneylines and over/unders for the full game and First 5 (F5) innings.
- He analyzes the April 10 slate of baseball games with his model below, including the Dodgers-Cardinals matchup.
- Plug in your odds to the spreadsheet at the bottom of this article to see where you might have an edge.
Weird baseball was in abundance on Tuesday.
Lourdes Gurriel Jr. recorded a straight steal of home plate against Chris Sale and the Red Sox.
Billy Hamilton scored from second base on a sacrifice fly, which was just as inevitable given his ridiculous speed as it was unlikely due to his inability to reach base.
The Baltimore Orioles failed to perform advanced scouting on “Lazer” Ramón Laureano and his ridiculous arm, as he recorded his fourth outfield assist of the season. He now has an astonishing 13 assists in 61 career games played.
We also saw a ton of “little league” errors by left fielders. Marcell Ozuna turned in the most hysterical fielding blooper of the 2019 season (so far):
Marcell Ozuna with the catch of the year, no other competition pic.twitter.com/y4I6NySTFW
— Starting 9 (@Starting9) April 10, 2019
Recapping Yesterday’s Model
It was a 2-2 day for the model on Tuesday. The Angels and Giants won while the Marlins were crushed, 14-0, and the Yankees lost a very tight game in Houston, 6-3.
However, I was all over the Toronto Blue Jays yesterday, too, hitting the moneyline twice at over 2/1, along with the reverse run line (-1.5 runs) at +385. Overall, tracked bets were 5-1, +3.18U.
It was finally a negative day for Closing Line Value (CLV).
I simply hopped on the Jays train too early. Everyone in the world was looking to bet on Boston yesterday, and Toronto’s best price (over +230) showed up closer to game time. I grabbed the Blue Jays at +200 and +215, but the line closed at +220.
I also lost out on over ten cents each with the Angels (+117 vs. +129) and Giants (+112 vs. +122).
I’ll gladly take the positive results, but I need to time the market better in order to maximize the value on these plays.
On Deck for Wednesday 4/10
All odds as of early Wednesday morning.
The model recommends four full-game moneylines for Wednesday.
The 4% trigger threshold officially marked the Angels, Giants, Pirates and Royals as plays.
I’m likely going back to the well with the Angels and Giants again.
Mike Trout strained his groin last night and might not play today, but that’s already been factored into my projection. If he does play, the Angels’ chances rise by more than 2% from where I currently set their projected win probability.
The Giants are in a position to take two of three from the Padres at home. I would line the Giants closer to -130 in this game, but they’re currently a short price (-104).
The public is excited about betting on this Padres team, and I’m going to wait to see if the Giants go to even money before taking it. But I’d play them down to -110, too.
The Royals are also an interesting play today. Sharps have been on them the past two days against the red-hot Mainers, and Kansas City dropped both games.
Today, the Royals will start Hunter Fillmyer — who struck out just 6.2 batters per nine innings while walking 3.5 (1.78 ratio) over 82.1 MLB innings in 2018 –against Yusei Kikuchi.
The public will once again be all over the Mariners, expecting an easy victory; I’ll be watching to see how high the price climbs before buying back on the Royals.
I’ll be doing something similar with the Pirates, as the public continues to drive support for the Cubs.
The Marlins and Nationals are close to being marked as plays at their current prices.
The Cardinals are also in a good contrarian spot for the third straight day, and could potentially sweep the Dodgers at home.
I’m considering buying in on Jack Flaherty and his devastating slider at home at even money, on a day when more than 70% of the tickets continue to support the Dodgers:
Jack Flaherty, a pair of Disgusting Sliders. 🤢🍔🍔 pic.twitter.com/hphf3afmFp
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) March 5, 2019
Bets (So Far) for April 10
Thus far, I have locked in:
- Los Angeles Angels (+125)
Zerillo’s Full MLB Model, 4/10: Moneylines & Over/Unders
Download the Excel doc with my projections to input odds from your sportsbook. These projections cover full game and First 5 moneylines and over/unders. A sample of one of the sheets is below.