MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Game 2 (Monday, Sept. 14)
Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Corbin Burnes.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Milwaukee Brewers Betting Odds
|Cardinals Odds||+188 [Bet Now]|
|Brewers Odds||-225 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||6.5 (-106/-114) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||8:10 p.m. ET|
The St. Louis Cardinals will face the Milwaukee Brewers on Monday for the first time this season. The teams will play a seven-inning doubleheader today and tomorrow before finishing with a nine-inning game on Wednesday in an attempt to make up games that were rescheduled due to a COVID-19 outbreak in the Cardinals’ clubhouse.
With the Brewers trailing the Cardinals by two games in the NL Central, this matchup will feel much like a playoff series because the second-place team in each division will be awarded a postseason berth this year.
The Cardinals will send Daniel Ponce de Leon in the second game of the doubleheader, while the Brewers will counter with Corbin Burnes.
St. Louis has had a combined total of 70 runs scored in its last seven games, and tonight’s matchup could point to another high-scoring affair given the Cardinals’ history with Burnes on the mound.
St. Louis Cardinals
Daniel Ponce de Leon is 0-3 with a 7.47 ERA and 1.91 WHIP, as batters have had success lifting the ball against him. His GB/FB is only 0.67, and he’s allowing 2.87 home runs per nine innings. He’s also really struggled with his command as, allowing 8.62 walks per nine innings.
Tonight, he’ll face a Brewers team that is in the top half of baseball with a 9.9% walk rate. In Ponce de Leon’s last start, walks were again an issue as he failed to make it out of the first inning after allowing four runs and four walks.
Corbin Burnes is 3-0 this season with a 1.99 ERA and 1.28 WHIP. His 2.06 FIP is right in line with his ERA, which suggests his runs allowed are a fair representation of his overall performance and ability this season. What has helped Burnes this season has been his ability to get a strikeout when needed in order to limit additional damage. His 12.71 K/9 ratio has helped to overcome his 3.77 BB/9 ratio.
However, there’s perhaps one team that Burnes has struggled to figure out —the Cardinals. St. Louis hitters have racked up 13 hits in 29 at-bats against Burnes for a .448 average and .610 wOBA.
St. Louis is also slugging .966 against him, hitting four home runs and bringing in nine runs. He’ll have to be mindful of how he approaches Matt Carpenter, as the Cardinals infielder has two home runs in just five at-bats against the Milwaukee right-hander.
If I’m a Cardinals hitter who has faced Burnes before, I’d be doing my best to ensure my name’s on the lineup card for Game 2 of this doubleheader. This is no time for a day off, and I’m sure Brewers hitters will feel the same in anticipation of facing Ponce de Leon.
The over is 5-1-1 in the Cardinals’ last seven games, and when these two teams have played one another in Milwaukee, the total is 6-2-2 to the over going back to last season. And with Burnes on the mound, the Brewers are also 6-1-3 for the over.
With five games in three days for these two teams, I don’t think either team will be looking to burn out their bullpens. That means Ponce de Leon and Burnes might be asked to go a little longer than normal should they run into trouble early on.
FanDuel is offering a total of 6.5 for the seven-inning game, and I’m willing to risk a half-unit of my bankroll that this one goes over the total.
The Pick: Over 6.5 (-106)