Monday MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets (Sept. 7)

Monday MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Philadelphia Phillies vs. New York Mets (Sept. 7) article feature image
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Rich Schultz/Getty Images. Pictured: Philadelphia Phillies pitcher Zack Wheeler.

  • The Philadelphia Phillies travel to New York to take on the Mets on Monday at 1:10 p.m. ET.
  • The Phillies have been the fourth-best offense against lefties this season, so BJ Cunningham explains why the Phillies are providing value for the first five innings.
  • Check out Cunningham's full preview with updated odds below.

Phillies vs. Mets Odds

Phillies Odds -120 [Bet Now]
Mets Odds +104 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 9 (-122/+102) [Bet Now]
First Pitch 1:10 p.m. ET

Odds as of Monday at 11 a.m. and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


Philadelphia took the first game of the series, but has dropped the last two as their bats have gone quiet. They now find themselves three games behind the Braves for first place in the NL East, so they need every win they cant get down the final stretch if they want make the playoffs.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual batter per game is 0.50 BaseRuns and a for a pitcher its 0.52 BaseRuns per inning.

Phillies Projected Lineup

The Phillies have been fantastic offensively this season. Philadelphia’s lineup boasts the sixth-best wOBA (.341) and eighth-best wRC+ (111) in MLB. Rhys Hoskins and Bryce Harper have led Philly’s offense, as they both have a wOBA over .400.

Most of the Phillies success has come against left-handed pitchers, as they’ve drilled them to the tune of a .359 wOBA. Philly has also been successful versus fastballs and changeups, which are two of Peterson’s main pitches, so they should have a good matchup on Monday afternoon.

Phillies Probable Starter

Zack Wheeler, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Zack Wheeler has been fantastic so far in 2020, posting a 2.20 ERA and a 3.79 xFIP. He’s been on point with his control, allowing only two home runs and nine walks in 45 innings pitched this season.

Wheeler has an elite fastball with top-end velocity and a lot of movement. In 2019, he added a few more MPH to his fastball and continued that velocity into 2020. Hitters have had difficulty against his fastball so far this season, as he’s allowed only a .293 wOBA against it.

Wheeler’s biggest improvement has been his sinker. In 2019, it was his worst pitch, allowing a wOBA of .343 against it. So far in 2020, its been his best pitch,  as he’s allowing only a .222 wOBA against that pitch and has improved his ground ball rate from 43.2% in 2019 to 55.2% in 2020.

Mets Projected Lineup

Despite their 19-22 record, the Mets’ offense has been really good so far this season. They have the fifth-best wOBA (.343) and third-best wRC+ (118). They’ve had most of their success versus right handed pitching, as they rank fourth in MLB in terms of wOBA (.346).

Dominic Smith, Robinson Cano, and Michael Conforto have been carrying the Mets, as they all have a wOBA over .400 and have combined for 69 RBIs this season.

Even though the Mets offense has been fantastic this season, they’ll have a tough matchup against Wheeler.

Mets Probable Starter

David Peterson, LHP

Projected & Actual Stats (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

The Mets’ 2017 first-round pick is enjoying a fairly good start to his first season in the big leagues. He’s posted a 3.03 ERA through his first five starts, but he’s been really fortunate, though, because his xFIP is all they way up at 5.20.

Peterson usually sits in the low 90s with his sinking fastball, which tends to produce a lot of ground balls (52.6% ground ball rate in Double-A last year). So far, it hasn’t been very effective as opponents have a .411 wOBA against it.

On the other hand, his slider has been electric so far, producing 14 punch-outs and a 34.5% whiff rate in only 107 pitches. He also has a changeup and straight fastball (different than his sinking fastball) that he mixes in frequently, which most scouts have characterized as average for the major league level.

He’ll have a tough matchup against Phillies, given how good they’ve been hitting against lefties.

Bullpens

The Phillies made a number of acquisitions at the deadline to try and improve their bullpen, and it’s still to early to tell if they’ve had a big impact, but they’ve lowered their xFIP to 4.69. The Mets’ bullpen ranks 13th in MLB with a 4.40 xFIP.

Projections and Pick

I think the Wheeler/Peterson matchup is a mismatch in the Phillies’ favor. With both offenses being fairly even, I think there is some value in backing Philadelphia for the first five innings at -107 (DraftKings), but I would only play it up to -113.

Pick: Phillies First Five Innings -107

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