Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Odds, Picks: Betting Predictions for Friday’s (July 24) MLB Matchup

Credit:

Jim McIsaac/Getty Images. Pictured: Jacob deGrom

  • The New York Mets will host the Atlanta Braves in Friday (4:10 p.m. ET, ESPN) MLB Opening Day action.
  • Based on real-time MLB odds, the Mets are -143 favorites over the Braves for Friday's game.
  • Read our detailed Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets betting preview, including picks and betting predictions.

Atlanta Braves at New York Mets Odds & Picks

Braves odds +125 [BET NOW]
Mets odds -143 [BET NOW]
Over/Under 7 (-110/-110)
[BET NOW]
Time Friday, 4:10 p.m. ET
TV ESPN

Odds as of Thursday 11 p.m. ET and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.


If you’re a fan of pitcher’s duels, Friday’s curtain-raiser between the Atlanta Braves and New York Mets is right up your alley.

Jacob deGrom, fresh off his second Cy Young Award in as many years, will lead the Mets — who come into the season as the third-favorites in the National League East and the fifth-favorites in the National League — against Mike Soroka and the Atlanta Braves, who are the NL East favorites.

By now, deGrom’s reputation is known throughout the sports world, but Soroka is only at the beginning of his career. The 22-year-old was steady as she goes for the Braves in 2019, posting a 2.68 ERA and 3.85 xFIP in 174.2 innings.

Although Soroka’s underlying metrics suggest he should regress a little, his ability to get groundballs will always make him a candidate to overachieve. Soroka finished with the sixth-best ground-ball rate last year.

While deGrom is a strike-out pitcher, Soroka is a master at inducing quiet contact, allowing the second-fewest home runs per 9 innings in all of baseball last season. DeGrom’s 0.82 HR/9 wasn’t too far behind Soroka’s 0.72, so the numbers would suggest that we shouldn’t expect too many longballs at Citi Field on Friday.

Let’s take a closer look at the action on this game as well as our lead analyst’s betting projections.


Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.


Betting Market

As a standalone game on a Friday afternoon in front of a sports-starved country, you better believe this game will do massive numbers for sportsbooks around the country.

According to Sports Insights, the Braves look like they will be the popular pick. As of midnight ET, the Braves have attracted 59% of the bets. Perhaps the most interesting part of the early betting on this game is that the Mets look to be attracting sharp action.

You can tell that’s the case because the Mets, despite only getting 41% of the tickets, are getting 78% of the money in the early betting.

Ticket % Money %
Braves Moneyline 59% 22%
Mets Moneyline 41% 78%
Over 69% 69%
Under 31% 31%

The Over also looks like it will be the public side, though that isn’t surprising as casual bettors tend to gravitate towards the Over even in a projected pitcher’s duel like this one.

Sean Zerillo’s Projections

Our lead baseball analyst, Sean Zerillo, creates projections for every MLB game. His model is updated daily and can be found here.

Here are Sean’s projected odds for Braves at Mets on Friday. The way they work is that he compares the implied probability from the listed odds to his model’s true odds:

Listed Implied Prob. True Implied Prob.
Atlanta Braves 44.44% 48.75%
New York Mets 58.85% 51.25%

For the Mets, his model is showing a -7.6% edge, meaning that there is -EV (negative expected value) on the Mets at -143. On the other hand, the model shows a +4.31% edge on Atlanta, meaning that a bet on the Braves at +125 would be +EV, per Sean’s projections.

[Bet now at PointsBet and Win $100 if the Braves get ONE hit]

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