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MLB Odds, Picks and Predictions: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets (Saturday, Sept. 19)

MLB Odds, Picks and Predictions: Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets (Saturday, Sept. 19) article feature image

Nicole Fridling/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Ian Anderson

Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets Betting Odds

Braves Odds -167 [Bet Now]
Mets Odds +140 [Bet Now]
Over/Under 9 (-104/-117) [Bet Now]
First Pitch 7:07 p.m. ET

Odds as of Saturday and via DraftKings. Get up to a $1,000 sign-up bonus at DraftKings today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

It won’t be for lack of effort that the Mets don’t make the postseason. After all, they haven’t had their full complement of pitchers with Noah Sydergaard being lost for the year with Tommy John surgery followed by Marcus Stroman’s decision to opt out of the season due to coronavirus concerns.

The Mets never started the season with a full deck and they don’t have the requisite arms to erase a three-game deficit in the hunt for the final wild-card spot. Instead, they’ll send rookie left-hander David Peterson to the mound tonight to take on fellow rookie Ian Anderson.

Both pitchers are first-round draft picks as Peterson was taken with the 20th pick in 2017 while Anderson was selected third overall in 2016. Anderson is actually a New York native and tonight will be his first professional start in his home state. A quality performance tonight could also put Anderson in line for a postseason start.

Stage is Too Big for Peterson

David Peterson is 4-2 on the season with a 4.17 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. While his traditional stats look good at first glance, his advanced numbers paint a different picture, most specifically his 4.91 FIP.

Peterson’s biggest problem is his lack of command as evidenced by his 4.66 BB/9 ratio. What’s even worse is that his 6.38 K/9 ratio shows that he hasn’t done a good enough job in getting himself out trouble when needed and that strikeout to walk ratio is right in line with his low strand rate of 72% of runners.

Another knock on Peterson is that he hasn’t really been able to provide much length in his starts. He’s only made it past the fifth inning once in his seven outings.

Peterson might be asked to eat some innings in tonight’s ballgame after fellow Mets southpaw, Steven Matz, failed to make it out of the third inning in yesterday’s 15-2 loss to the Braves.

That possibility alone could prove to be a nightmare for Mets backers.

Coming of Age

Ian Anderson has yet to taste defeat in his MLB career. He’s 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA and a 0.91 WHIP. Although his advanced numbers are better than Peterson, Anderson is also in line for some regression as he carries a 2.97 FIP.

It isn’t uncommon for young pitchers to struggle with their control and Peterson is no exception to the rule.

He has a 4.09 BB/9 ratio but where he differs from Peterson is his ability to limit the damage with his 11.05 K/9 ratio. Figure this: Anderson’s 82.5% LOB rate means he’s been able to strand 10% more runners on base than Peterson.

In his last outing, Anderson pitched seven innings of shutout ball while only allowing one hit. Anderson has actually yet to allow more than two earned runs in any of his starts this season.

This will be the first time the Mets get an up-close look at Anderson as he didn’t face them in any of the previous series this year. That’s an advantage that shouldn’t go unnoticed in this matchup.

Betting Analysis

Yesterday, I was on the right side of a resounding Braves F5 RL win against the Mets and I’ve got no problem coming back again with them tonight. At this stage in their career’s, Anderson’s the more polished pitcher as he’s already had a year’s head start on Peterson.

The Braves actually faced off against Peterson earlier this year and they touched him up for three runs in six innings en route to a 4-0 win. I think the edge in the quality on the mound for the Braves will just be too much for the Mets to overcome.

Let’s go back to the well with the Braves RL in the F5 of tonight’s game.

BetMGM has this priced at -115 and that’s good enough to get me to the window. I’ll risk a half-unit of my bankroll that the Braves will have the lead again after five innings in tonight’s ballgame.

The Bet: Atlanta Braves -0.5 Runs F5 Innings (Up to -125)

[Bet now at BetMGM and get an INSTANT $500 deposit match.]

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