MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions (Thursday, July 30): Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Odds

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This is my first West Coast preview and it’s a doozy. I’m happy to get an assignment for two teams I haven’t covered because it forces me to dig in to their metrics and give them the eye test after placing my wager.

Make no mistake, I’ve been betting both these teams since the season started. I’m a volume bettor so I seldom pass on any game. I’ve cashed with the Dodgers their last two games, but the stakes are higher now that there’s a preview involved.

Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers carry a +17 run differential into their meeting with the Arizona Diamondbacks. That’s a significant number this early in the season and yet the Diamondbacks sit just two games behind the Dodgers. In L.A.’s opening series against the Giants, they won their games by wide margins (8-1 and 9-1) before San Francisco rallied to win the next two games and split the series.

L.A. finished a two-game road sweep of the Astros, but I would argue it had favorable starting pitching matchups both times.

Arizona Diamondbacks

The Diamondbacks are off to a slow start despite high expectations entering 202. Through six games, Arizona has a -12 run differential after six straight road games against the Padres and Rangers. Arizona’s bullpen has already blown two saves and currently ranks 25th in ERA (5.75).

The Matchup

Los Angeles will send out Ross Stripling for his second start of the season after dominating over seven innings in his first start, allowing just four hits and one run against the Giants. In his career the Dodgers are 5-3 in Stripling’s starts against the Diamondbacks for 1.2 units. Last year Los Angeles finished 3-1 in his starts against Arizona with the only loss coming against Thursday’s likely starter Robbie Ray.

Ray gave up four hits, three runs and three walks and failed to finish the fourth inning despite throwing 97 pitches in his first start. The burly lefty will be looking to bounce back against a Dodgers team that he’s had success against in the past: Ray is 8-5 with a 3.15 ERA in 20 starts when facing the L.A. team while the Diamondbacks are 12-9 in games that he’s appeared in for 7.08 units.

Four of Ray’s last five games have been decided by one run and over his career the Diamondbacks are 15-6 on the run line for 5.6 units.

Betting Analysis

Tonight's matchup offers a Diamondbacks team looking for a spark in its home opener against a formidable Dodgers side with an intimidating if slightly misleading run differential.

The Dodgers arrive in Arizona after a 13-inning win against Houston that took almost five hours to play. This is a possible situational spot for Arizona so I queried L.A.’s performance in this spot when coming off an extra inning win and having to play their next game on the road.

Over the last decade, the Dodgers are 14-17 in this exact spot for a loss of 7.2 units. I tweaked my query to produce a result whereby that next game was a series opener to see if there was anything to glean from the possible travel from one city to another. In this spot the Dodgers are 3-5 for a loss of 3.2 units and they’re 0-3 the last three games in this spot with two of those losses coming against the Diamondbacks.

Using last year's data as a foundation, my model projects the Dodgers as a -120 favorite and that number would likely decline given the current circumstances.

The Pick

For me, the value is clearly on the home dog here and I’ll look to place my bet as close as I can to the start of the game to get the best price.

Arizona’s bullpen worries me, so I’ll look for some cover by splitting my action evenly between the money line and the run line. Just hold your nose and bet it. You can find live MLB odds and shop for the best line here.

Diamondbacks ML (+140 or higher) .5u, and Diamondbacks RL (-110 up to -120) .5u.

[Bet Dodgers-Diamondbacks now at PointsBet and win $100 if either team get at least one hit]