MLB Odds, Picks & Predictions: Texas Rangers vs. Colorado Rockies (Friday, Aug. 14)

Rangers vs. Rockies Odds

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The Rockies will look to maintain first place in the NL West as they face Lance Lynn and the Rangers on Friday night. After a slow start the Rangers took two of three from the Mariners early in the week and now find themselves only four games behind Oakland for 2nd place in the AL West. The Rockies, meanwhile, are arguably the biggest surprise of the young season.

Advanced Stats Glossary

FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching measures what a pitcher’s ERA would look like if the pitcher experienced league-average defense and luck. xFIP  is a regressed version of FIP that adjusts or “normalizes’ the home run component based on park factors.

wRC+ or Weighted Runs Created Plus takes the statistic Runs Created and adjusts that number to account for critical external factors — like ballpark or era. It’s adjusted, so a wRC+ of 100 is league average, and 150 would be 50 percent above league average.

wOBA or Weighted On-Base Average is a catch-all hitting metric with more predictive value than on-base percentage. An average MLB hitter can be expected to post a .320 wOBA. xwOBA is a regressed version of wOBA that accounts for variables like park factors.

BaseRuns is a formula designed to estimate how many runs a team would be expected to score (or allow) given their underlying offensive (or defensive) performance. In other words, BaseRuns is a context-neutral run estimator used to evaluate teams. Major League average for an individual player per game is 0.46 BaseRuns.

Rangers

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

The Rangers have struggled offensively to begin the season, ranking 28th in MLB with a .284 wOBA and 70 wRC+. Joey Gallo and Todd Frazier have been their only bright spot as the two are the only ones with wOBAs over .350.

However, they should have a good opportunity to get back on track against a very below average righty in Ryan Castellani on Friday.

Rangers Projected Starter

Lance Lynn, RHP

Projected & Actual Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Pitch Arsenal (via Baseball Savant)

Lynn has been really good to start the season, allowing only three earned runs on 10 hits in 23.1 innings of work. The righty is predominantly a fastball pitcher and produced a 30.7% whiff rate on his fastball in 2019. It's been even better in 2020, only allowing a .259 wOBA to opponents. He’s also mixed in a slider/cutter-type pitch that isn’t elite, but keeps hitters from timing his fastball.

The top of the Rockies lineup has been feasting on fastballs so far in 2020. However,  I think Lynn’s will be able to keep Colorado's hitters at bay.

Rockies

Projected Lineup (via Fantasy Labs)

Colorado has been absolutely ripping the ball in 2020. They rank second in MLB in terms of wOBA (.345).  Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, and Trevor Story have been on fire combining for 18 home runs and 54 RBIs to begin the season.

Lynn was able to shut down the Rockies on opening day, so it'll be interesting to see if they can get to him the second time around.

Rockies Projectes Starter

Ryan Castellani, RHP

Projected Stats (ZIPS) (via Fangraphs)

Castellani might be worst starting pitcher in the majors this season. He was called up from the minors to begin the season and I have no idea why. His xFIP in 43.1 innings in AAA was a whopping 6.26, along with an ERA of 8.31. ZIPS has his FIP projected for 6.27 and that might be generous. In 10 starts in Triple A last season, he has a lot of issues with his control. He allowed a 6.23 BB/9 rate and a 2.91 HR/9, which doesn't bode well for him since he'll be pitching at Coors.

The Rangers offense has been anemic to begin the season, but they should have no trouble against a pitcher who should be in Double A.

Bullpens

Both bullpens haven't been great to begin the season, but the Rangers has been markedly worse, allowing a 4.98 xFIP through their first 17 games.

Projections and Pick

Lance Lynn is a significantly better pitcher than Castellani, so the Rangers have a huge advantage on the mound at the outset. Their bullpen has been a disaster so far this year, so I am going to avoid them at all costs. Therefore, I am going to bet the Rangers first five inning moneyline at -141 and I would bet it up to -160.

Pick: Rangers First Five Innings -141