Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs Betting Odds, Picks & Predictions (Wednesday, Sept. 9)
Photo by Kirk Irwin/Getty Images. Pictured: Yu Darvish #11 of the Chicago Cubs
- Should bettors expect another dominant Cubs performance tonight against Cincinnati?
- Michael Arinze breaks down how he's betting Reds vs. Cubs at Wrigley Field.
- Find his full betting guide below with updated odds, picks and predictions for tonight's MLB matchup.
Reds vs. Cubs Betting Odds
|Reds Odds||+128 [Bet Now]|
|Cubs Odds||-150 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||6.5 (+100/-118) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||8:15 p.m. ET|
I’m done waiting for the Cincinnati Reds to resemble a playoff team. Right now they’re currently 4.5 games out of the final playoff spot in the National League. This season began with a lot of promise for the Reds, particularly after they made a number of free-agent signings to improve their lineup.
None of it seems to have worked as the team just hasn’t gelled in the pandemic-shortened season.
The Reds got shut out by Alec Mills and the Chicago Cubs in yesterday’s ballgame. Mills had a 5.50 ERA going into the matchup and still limited the Cincinnati club to just four hits during his outing. Tonight, the Reds will have to deal with Cy Young contender Yu Darvish, who is 7-1 to start the season.
While the Reds will counter with a quality pitcher of their own in Trevor Bauer, if their offense doesn’t start clicking it won’t matter much who’s on the mound for them tonight.
Bauer is 3-3 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.86 WHIP. The Reds are 3-4 in his outings,and in those losses the Reds have scored an average of 1.75 runs. In five of his seven starts Bauer has given up one run or fewer and the Reds are 2-2 in those games. This tells me that even if Bauer pitches well the Reds can still find a way to lose.
The Reds have lost his last three starts and they’ve managed a total of only five runs in those games. Tonight’s game will be a rematch of one of those losses in which he and the Reds couldn’t overcome a 3-0 shutout performance from Darvish.
While I expect Bauer to pitch well again in this matchup, runs should be hard to come by based on the total of 6.5. Some books have even dropped it down to 6 as under money continues to pour in. This total is as much an indictment against the Reds offense as anything else.
Over the last seven days, Cincinnati is dead-last in all of baseball with a .168 batting average and 26th with a below average wRC+ value of 76. My model has it projected to score 3.19 runs in this ballgame, but I’ve shaved one run off due to its recent form.
Frankly, I’m not sure I’ve downgraded the Reds enough.
It’s easy to run out of superlatives describing how well Darvish has pitched this season. His ERA is 1.44 and his WHIP is 0.88. His FIP is 2.02 and he’s stranding 90.9% of the runners that reach base.
Darvish’s advanced numbers are simply through the roof and hitters just aren’t able to barrel up against him, which is part of the reason he has a 0.54 HR/9 ratio. He’s also been able to cut down on his walks. Last season he had a 2.82 BB/9 ratio, but this year he’s slashed that number down to 1.44.
If that’s not enough, Darvish hasn’t allowed more than one run since his first start of the season back in late July. He really looks like a man on a mission this season and he’s been open about the need to reward the Cubs’ front office after it signed him to a six-year deal that could be worth as much as $150 million.
The talent has always been there but it appears the maturity has just started to take shape. In an earlier preview, I broke down some of the changes Darvish has made this season and I don’t see any reason to abandon my theory just yet.
My model has the Cubs as -153 favorites in this game. They’re creating almost a half-run more than the Reds, and after downgrading the Reds offense I see Chicago’s edge in tonight’s ballgame as more than 1.5 runs.
Chicago has been on a an absolute tear with Darvish on the mound. It has won his last seven starts and Darvish has hung around long enough to pick up the decision in each one of them. In those games, Chicago has outscored its opponents, 31-11.
It doesn’t hurt that Darvish is well-liked by his teammates and I expect them to continue to give max effort in his outings.
The mood in the Chicago clubhouse is certainly different from the one in the opposing dugout. The Reds are stumbling to the finish line and you can’t win games if you don’t score runs. I expect their offensive woes to continue at Wrigley Field.
I’ll pass on the moneyline in this game, but find an alternate run line at -1 (-104) at BetRivers. I still like the Cubs to win by at least two runs so I’ll back them -1 (-104), which I’m comfortable playing to -128.
The Bet: Cubs -1 (-104)