Tuesday MLB Betting: Odds, Picks and Predictions for Cardinals vs. Cubs (August 18)
Nuccio DiNuzzo/Getty Images. Pictured: Dylan Carlson and Wilson Contreras
- The Cubs are a hefty favorite over the Cardinals on Tuesday night with Yu Darvish on the mound.
- Michael Arinze thinks scoring will be limited in the first five innings, so he's playing under 4.5.
- Get his full breakdown and bet for Cubs vs. Cardinals below.
St. Louis Cardinals vs. Chicago Cubs Betting Odds
|Cardinals Odds||+170 [Bet Now]|
|Cubs Odds||-200 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||8 (-106/-113) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||8:15 p.m. ET|
The St. Louis Cardinals and Chicago Cubs will play the third game of a five-game series at Wrigley Field on Tuesday night. Both teams split a doubleheader yesterday with the Cardinals taking the first game and the Cubs needing four runs in the sixth to rally back from a three-run deficit in game two.
Tonight’s game figures to be just as competitive given the starting pitchers who are projected for this matchup. The Cardinals will send Daniel Ponce De Leon to the mound against Yu Darvish.
You only need to read the preview piece I wrote on August 13 to get my perspective on Darvish. Darvish was utterly dominant in that start and took a no-hitter into the seventh, while racking up 11 strikeouts in the 4-2 win.
As for de Leon, he’ll be making his second start of the season in what is his third year in the majors. De Leon averaged 9.035 strikeouts per nine innings in his first two seasons so there’s no doubt that he’s got wipe-out stuff in his arsenal.
But the offenses won’t just have to worry about the opposing pitchers on the mound, they’ll also have to deal with the elements and mother nature.
The wind is expected to be blowing in from centerfield at a speed of 11 mph. That, combined with both pitchers’ strikeout rate, could suggest that runs will be hard to come by in this matchup.
St. Louis Cardinals
Daniel Ponce de Leon will be looking to pick up his first win of the season. Last year he appeared in 13 games with eight starts and went 1-2 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.27 WHIP. Opposing teams only hit .206 off de Leon and if they somehow reached the base it was likely because de Leon was being wasteful with his pitches. The right-hander allowed 4.81 walks per nine innings yet stranded 77.3% of runners on base.
De Leon’s ability to generate strikeouts is key to masking this flaw of giving hitters free passes. The current stats suggest that he’s the kind of pitcher who is able to limit damage and not rattle even in pressure situations.
Darvish will look to repeat the performance his last time out. His impressive form dates back to his last three starts, as he’s given up only two runs in 20 innings. He’s almost slashed his walk rate in half (1.50 down from 2.82 in 2019) and his 2.16 FIP is practically immaculate.
Cardinals hitters are batting .192 in 78 at-bats with two home runs and 7 RBIs against the Japanese hurler. With Darvish making a concerted effort to limit his walks this season, he looks to be well on his way to another dominant start.
When handicapping games at Wrigley, you always have to keep an eye out for the weather report. An 11 mph wind blowing in from centerfield is certainly something that would catch my attention. I did my best to wait as long as possible to see the opening total the sportsbooks would send out for this game. As I thought more about it, I realized I was really angling for a play on the total for the first five innings. By my estimation, anything at 4.5 or better would seem like something worthy of a play on the under.
Luckily, BetRivers posted an under of 4.5 at -125 for the first five innings. Swirling winds coupled with two pitchers with put-away stuff sounds like the perfect recipe for an under. That price is right in my wheelhouse and I’d bet that right away because I expect this number to be long gone at some point today.
The PICK: First Five Innings Under 4.5 (I wouldn’t feel as comfortable to play anything below this current number)