Sunday MLB Odds, Picks and Predictions: Rockies vs. Dodgers (Sept. 6)
Christian Petersen/Getty Images. Pictured: Julio Urias.
- The Colorado Rockies travel to LA to take on the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday night.
- Baseball writer Michael Arinze previews this important National League game.
- Check out his full breakdown on this game, along with updated odds and his featured pick.
Rockies vs. Dodgers Odds
|Rockies Odds||+250 [Bet Now]|
|Dodgers Odds||-305 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||9.5 (-117/-105) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||10:10 p.m. ET|
The Colorado Rockies won for just the second time in 19 games at Dodgers Stadium last night. While I didn’t land on the Rockies as a side in my preview, I did highlight that the Rockies starting pitcher, German Marquez, has pitched well at Dodgers Stadium. Last night was no different, as he turned in another quality performance. The Colorado right-hander picked up the win by going seven innings while allowing two runs on five hits.
And yet, Colorado backers should tread lightly because achieving a similar feat in tonight’s ballgame should be quite the challenge.
The Dodgers have only lost back-to-back games twice this season, and given the pitching matchup on the mound, I’m not sure that’ll change just yet.
Check out our free MLB odds page, which automatically surfaces the best line for every game.
The Rockies will send rookie pitcher Ryan Castellani to the mound for his seventh start this season. In an earlier preview, I backed Castellani as a home dog against the Padres, and boy was I wrong. After following a number of his starts, I can tell you that one of his best pitches this season has been his changeup.
Per Baseball Savant, he throws his changeup 19.3% of the time, and batters are hitting just .118 against it. Yet for some reason, he seems to have almost abandoned the pitch in his recent starts.
On Aug. 19, he threw his changeup 24 times, and since then, its usage declined to 19, eight, and one in subsequent outings. Granted, when he threw it only once, he came on in relief and only pitched two innings. But you get the point. For whatever reason, he seems to have either lost confidence with the pitch or it has simply fallen out of favor with him. During this time, he’s also increased the use of his four-seamer despite batters hitting .414 off the pitch for the season.
At this point in his young career, I’m not sure Castellani knows what his best pitch is in the big leagues, and that’s a dangerous predicament for a rookie to be in when he has to face a complete team like the Dodgers.
Los Angeles Dodgers
Castellani will be opposed by Dodgers southpaw Julio Urias. Even at 24, Urias almost seems like he’s been around forever since this is his fifth year in LA. In the past, he split his time as a reliever and starter, but this year, he’s firmly installed in the Dodgers’ rotation. He’s rewarded the organization by going 3-0 on the year with a 3.27 ERA and 1.27 WHIP.
As far as his predictive numbers, Urias’ 3.87 FIP is higher than his ERA, so he might be in line for a little regression. His 2.73 BB/9 ratio could become a bigger problem if he’s unable to maintain his 82.4% strand rate.
In spite of those possible red flags, Urias has been around the block a few times. The fact is you don’t get called up to put on the Dodger Blue at the tender age of 20 if you don’t have it together.
I was ready to tell you about all the reasons to back the Dodgers on the run line tonight. Unfortunately, the line has gotten away from me and surpassed my threshold. It was originally trading at -125, but it’s now been bet up to -150.
If you’re still in need of some late-night fun or looking to chase some of your earlier losses, then perhaps you’d want to consider one of my favorite props: at DraftKings, you can grab the Dodgers to score first and win the game at +110. This prop takes all the juice out of the moneyline and the run line and replaces it with a first-inning sweat that you’re going to have to endure.
I think the Dodgers will get to Castellani. He just doesn’t seem too confident right now, and the Rockies even brought him out of the pen against the Giants in his last outing in an attempt to build his confidence. That appearance was one I would call a “stress-free” situation. Castellani was brought in to the game in the fifth inning as the third reliever when the Rockies were already trailing, 6-1.
Tonight, he’ll be front and center to deal with all the stress tests this Dodgers lineup can put a young pitcher through.
Los Angeles will be in a foul mood having lost yesterday’s game. With a 30-11 record, it’s just not used to losing ballgames.
The Dodgers are 4-1 all-time when Urias starts against the Rockies for 2.68 units. After a loss this season, they’re 8-2 (+2.8 units). They’re 6-0 going back to April of last year when coming off a game they lost by exactly three runs. When they’ve lost by three or more runs, the Dodgers are 17-5 the next game in their last 22 ballgames.
Those numbers might be just enough to get you to the window.
So long as you can make it through the sweat in the top of the first inning.
The Bet: Lean Dodgers — To Score 1st and Win (+110)