Thursday MLB Betting Odds & Pick for Blue Jays vs. Braves: Fade Atlanta’s Bullpen (May 13)

Both the Toronto Blue Jays and the Atlanta Braves are equally matched for this week’s interleague series which started on Tuesday. The Blue Jays currently have an 18-16 record while the Braves have a 17-18 record. Both teams are within three games of first place in their divisions, so it should not be a surprise that Tuesday and Wednesday’s game were considered tossups by the betting markets.

For Thursday’s game the Atlanta Braves are the clear favorites, and that is because of the pitching matchup. The starting pitcher for the Braves is reliable veteran  Charlie Morton. Opposing Morton is Ross Stripling who has struggled this season. Can Toronto overcome Atlanta’s edge in starting pitching?

Toronto Blue Jays

Any pitcher who has pitched for only 16 1/3 innings like Ross Stripling has this season is hard to assess. The pitcher could have performed poorly in a small sample size of games, or they are just awful. If Stripling pitches like how he has been pitching this season and last, then the Blue Jays should lose.

In four starts this season, Stripling has a 6.61 ERA and a 4.87 xFIP. Additionally, Stripling is only averaging around four innings per start. In 2020, Stripling had a 5.84 ERA and a 4.95 xFIP in only 49 1/3 innings. However, before 2020, Stripling had a sub-four ERA in each of his first four seasons with the LA Dodgers. If Stripling can return to his form from when he was with the Dodgers, then he could be a dangerous pitcher moving forward.

While the Blue Jays are vulnerable at starting pitcher, their lineup is a strength. Currently Toronto is averaging 4.85 runs per game which is the eighth best in the league. The only disadvantage that the Blue Jays have is that they are without a designated hitter for this week’s series and OF George Springer.

However, according to my model, their projected lineup which includes Stripling hitting would produce 4.48 runs on a typical night. Against the Braves, the Blue Jays should be competitive based on the strength of their lineup.

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Atlanta Braves

Unlike Toronto, Atlanta has a reliable starting pitcher for Thursday’s game in Charlie Morton. While Morton is a 37-year-old in his 14^th MLB season, he has quietly been one of the most reliable pitchers over the last six years. For the 2021 season, Morton has a 4.98 ERA and a 3.58 xFIP.

Morton should allow fewer runs over the course of a full season as evidenced by the fact that his xFIP is almost one-and-a-half runs less than his ERA. While Morton is a solid pitcher, he has been used relatively conservatively over the last two seasons.

Last year with the Tampa Bay Rays, Morton averaged less than 4 1/3 innings per start. This season with Atlanta, Morton is averaging less than five innings per start. Even if Morton pitches a good game on Thursday, the Braves must rely on their bullpen for much of their game.

Like the Blue Jays, the Braves have a strong lineup. Currently Atlanta averages 4.63 runs per game which is .28 more runs per game than the average MLB team. The Braves are particularly strong at the top of the order with OF Ronald Acuña Jr. and 1B Freddie Freeman.

Blue Jays-Braves Pick

I am tempted to bet on the Blue Jays moneyline for Thursday’s game, but my model does not like either team’s moneyline. Toronto is particularly vulnerable with Ross Stripling on the mound, and Atlanta is not as good of a team as they are perceived to be.

However, when I simulated Thursday’s game 10,000 times, my model sees an edge with taking the over on Toronto’s team run total. Charlie Morton is a strong pitcher for the Braves, but he is unlikely to pitch for more than five innings. Additionally, the Blue Jays have a lineup that usually has more than four runs a game.

While some sites offer a team total of over 3.5 (-140) on the Blue Jays, my model does not see much of an edge at that number. However, for Toronto to score over 4 runs at only -105 odds, my model sees this team total bet as a large enough edge to merit a bet.

Pick: Toronto Team Run Total Over 4 Runs (-105) (Wynn) would play up to -115