MLB Odds & Picks: Yankees vs. Blue Jays Preview (Wednesday, September 9)
Bryan M. Bennett/Getty Images. Pictured: Toronto Blue Jays
Yankees vs. Blue Jays Odds
|Yankees Odds||-139 [Bet Now]|
|Blue Jays Odds||+125 [Bet Now]|
|Over/Under||10 (-110/-110) [Bet Now]|
|First Pitch||6:37 p.m. ET|
After suffering another loss, the Yankees’ playoff chances seem to be hanging by a thread. The Yanks have been decimated by injuries with Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Gio Urshela, and James Paxton all on the IL.
But don’t expect any sympathy cards from the remaining 29 teams in the majors. Per Spotrac, New York still has the highest payroll in the MLB even during this pandemic season.
The Yankees will try to avoid a sweep by the Blue Jays tonight and their hopes will rest on the rookie shoulders of Deivi Garcia. New York opened at around -120 and early action has pushed the number up to -135.
However I’m not sure I have a lot of confidence backing this team right now particularly if they’re not at full-strength.
New York Yankees
Deivi Garcia will make his third professional start tonight. He pitched well in his Major League debut despite not getting the decision, as he went six innings without allowing an earned run or walk against the Mets.
His second start didn’t go as well. He failed to make it out of the fifth inning and gave up four earned runs in a 6-3 loss to the Baltimore Orioles.
With only two big league appearances, there’s just not enough data on Garcia to get a representative sample. While he currently has a 2.97 FIP, FanGraphs does project that number to be almost two runs higher.
No one doubts the talent of the 21-year-old, but this is also the same pitcher who had went 1-3 in 40 innings of Triple-A ball with a 5.40 ERA and 5.77 FIP. The fact of the matter is that Garcia is still a work in progress, and there’s a good chance he’s closer to what we saw against the Orioles than what we saw against the Mets.
Usually, young pitchers in the Yankees rotation have been able to count on the offense as a safety net, but that hasn’t been the case of late. Over the last 14 days, the Yankees are 27th in the league with a 77 wRC+ rating and they’re 29th in the league with a .205 AVG and .247 BAPIP.
Toronto Blue Jays
Garcia will be opposed by Tanner Roark of the Blue Jays. He is 2-1 with a 5.74 ERA and 1.79 WHIP. Roark’s advanced numbers aren’t better by any stretch. He carries a 6.32 FIP with a 5.32 xFIP and 5.24 SIERA.
In spite of those subpar numbers, he’s been almost a good luck charm for the Blue Jays. In seven outings this season, Toronto is 6-1 with him on the mound for 6.32 units.
Toronto has won games because of its superb bullpen. The Blue Jays rank fourth in all of baseball with a 3.21 bullpen ERA, first with 3.1 WAR and fifth in FIP at 3.72.
It’s been interesting to follow how the public is betting this game using the Action Network Public Money Percentages. Early on, the Yankees were getting a higher percentage of the money but that has now flipped to the Blue Jays. What’s also interesting is that while sharps have bet the Yankees in the first two games of this series, they seem to be sitting this one out.
BetMGM is offering the visiting Yankees at -139 which carries an implied value of 58.16%. That number is too high for me especially when you factor in their bullpen, which figures to play role.
The last 14 days, the Yankees bullpen has the lowest WAR rating (-1.2) of any team in Major League Baseball. They’re also ranked 28th with a 6.53 FIP which is higher than their 5.92 ERA during that same time period.
While the Yankees might be due for a win, this bettor is not buying it just yet.
Yankee GM Brian Cashman called a team meeting yesterday perhaps to give them a vote of confidence and they still only managed to put one run on the board.
The Yankees are going to have to prove it to me and they’re still worth a fade at the current price in my book.
I’ll take the +125 at BetMGM and risk a half-unit on the Blue Jays to finish the sweep of the Yankees in Buffalo tonight.
The Bet: Blue Jays ML +125 (Play down to +115) (risking 0.5 units)