Wednesday MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Padres-Rangers, Four Other Games

Wednesday MLB Sharp Report: Pros Betting Padres-Rangers, Four Other Games article feature image
Credit:

Eric Hosmer and Hunter Renfroe. Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Wiseguys went 2-3 on Tuesday, cashing the Cubs/Dodgers Over and Rockies/Giants Under, but losing Orioles, Angels and Padres/Rangers Over.

The Orioles (25%, +147 to +135) were the backbreaker. Baltimore led 2-1 entering the eighth but then gave up two late runs to lose 3-2. Ultimately, that was the difference between a winning night and a losing night for the Goodfellas. On to the next slate (which of course includes the Orioles).

After analyzing Wednesday’s 14-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed five MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 7:10 p.m., 8:05 p.m. and 8:15 p.m. ET.

Data as of 2:30 p.m. ET. All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All total plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.

Seattle Mariners at Baltimore Orioles (-105) 

7:05 p.m. ET

Albert Einstein famously said "Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity."

Well, guess what. Sharps are back on the Orioles, as insane as it may be. Baltimore is getting only 32% of bets but the Birds have fallen from +115 to -105.

Pittsburgh Pirates at New York Mets (-111)

7:10 p.m. ET

The Mets snapped their seven-game losing streak last night, beating the Pirates 4-3. Gambler's Fallacy says there's no way the Metropolitans can win two straight, but sharps disagree. This game opened at a pick'em (-104 both sides) and nearly 70% of bettors are taking the Buccos.

But the line has moved toward New York (-104 to -111), indicating sharp reverse line movement.

Arizona Diamondbacks at Miami Marlins Under 7.5

7:10 p.m. ET

With Robbie Ray (4.88 ERA) coming off the DL and Wei-Yin Chen (6.70 ERA) on the mound for Miami, the public sees an easy Over, especially with the low total. However, despite 65% of bets going Over, the Under is receiving 75% of dollars, and the total dropped from 8 to 7.5.

This massive bet vs. dollar discrepancy and reverse line movement are clear indications that Goodfellas are on the Under train. An added bonus for Under backers: Dan Bellino is behind the plate, a notable Under ump since 2005 (+24.7 units).

San Diego Padres (+110) at Texas Rangers

8:05 p.m. ET

The Padres and Rangers are about as evenly matched as you can get. They have almost identical records (SD 36-46, TEX 35-46) and they've split the first two games of the series. Wiseguys like the Fathers to win the rubber match tonight. San Diego is getting only 46% of bets but 79% of dollars, a clear smart money discrepancy.

Cleveland Indians at St. Louis Cardinals (-115) 

8:10 p.m. ET

The public is always biased toward favorites, so when they load up on a dog, it creates rare contrarian value for wiseguys. The Indians have dropped the first two games of this series, and the public thinks they're a good team, so they won't get swept. Sharps disagree.

The Cards are getting only 36% of bets but 73% dollars, a massive smart money discrepancy.

Remember: The betting market is fluid. Data changes as more action comes in. For updated odds and percentages, be sure to check out the Action Network MLB betting trends page.

Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.

For more betting info and customer support, you can find me on twitter @Josh_Insights.

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