Saturday’s MLB Over/Under: Handicapping the Mile High Total at Coors Field

Saturday’s MLB Over/Under: Handicapping the Mile High Total at Coors Field article feature image
Credit:

Brad Mills-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Chad Bettis.

The Highlights

  • Even though his last two starts haven’t been good, Rockies right-hander Chad Bettis has shown a tendency to bounce back.
  • Arizona starter Matt Koch has been particularly stingy in his road outings, having posted a 2.03 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .191 BAA in 13.1 innings.

OK, not how I wanted to start my weekend, narrowly dropping Royals-Athletics Under 7.5 last night with two of my favorite pitchers. Let’s just move on to my play for Saturday.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Record: 43-24-2, +16.3 units
Yesterday’s Result: Royals-Athletics Under 7.5, Junis vs. Montas (loss)

*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


Arizona Diamondbacks @ Colorado Rockies

7:15 p.m. ET (FOX)
Probable Pitchers: Matt Koch (4-3, 3.76 ERA) vs. Chad Bettis (4-1, 4.02 ERA)

There’s arguably nothing more fascinating than a Coors Field over/under, as the oddsmakers can show great variance when determining the total for any given contest in Colorado. With tonight’s exceptionally high number, undoubtedly this is one of those times.

There have been lower totals for inferior starting pitching matchups at Coors. Yet, here we are with an affair between two respectable hurlers and a line of 13. Koch and Bettis can each contribute toward filing such an under.

Regarding Bettis, there may be some concern that he’s allowed five runs in each of his last two starts. However, he performs well under such circumstances if you look at his track record in the big leagues.

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In fact, for his career, there have been eight such instances where Bettis has surrendered four or more runs in his previous two consecutive outings. And in such follow-up starts, he’s compiled a solid 3.38 ERA and 1.24 WHIP to go with 34 strikeouts in 42.2 innings. Just as important as anything, Bettis has yielded only six home runs in these outings. In other words, the 29-year-old means business when trying to bounce back from subpar performances. He’s also more than due for some type of satisfactory showing at home.

As for Koch, he has no need to bounce back from any poor night at the office. Looking at his last start, it appears the Louisville product — who was called a “godsend” by manager Torey Lovullo for how he’s filled in for the injured Taijuan Walker — is continuing his upward trend, as he tossed seven shutout innings against the Marlins.

For the season, he’s been more than serviceable possessing a 4-3 record, 3.76 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in nine starts (and one relief appearance). Koch has been particularly stingy in his road starts, having posted a 2.03 ERA, 1.05 WHIP and .191 BAA in 13.1 innings. He is facing the Rockies for the first time since being inserted into the rotation, so that could be helpful as well.

It seems highly unlikely the line will soar anymore, already drifting more than a full run above its opening line. Thus, get your Under 13 wager in as soon as you can.

Play: UNDER 13 (-110)

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