Monday’s MLB Over/Under: Will The Snakes Keep Raking Against the Pirates?

Monday’s MLB Over/Under: Will The Snakes Keep Raking Against the Pirates? article feature image

Ouch, a rough week overall last week, as we slumped to a 2-5 mark. Coming off a disappointing weekend, you can bet I want to snap this funk immediately. Let’s see what I have for the new week to hopefully commence a new streak.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 43-26-2, +14.2 units
Yesterday’s Result: Braves-Dodgers Under 7, Newcomb vs. Stripling (loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

Pittsburgh Pirates @ Arizona Diamondbacks | O/U: 7.5
9:40 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Joe Musgrove (2-1, 1.89 ERA) vs. Patrick Corbin (6-2, 2.87 ERA)

Unfortunately, I settled on this one a little late, missing out on an opportunity to grab this under bet at an even 8, but at 7.5, this is still a worthy play for your Monday evening.

Sure, it might seem difficult as the Diamondbacks are heating up again. The Snakes come into this game fresh off a three-game sweep of the Rockies that saw them score a whopping 29 runs, but need I remind you that came at Coors Field, where all hitters prosper.

They’ll return home for this series with Pittsburgh, and if you’ve been following the effects of Chase Field’s new humidor this season, you’d note that Arizona’s home park has seen considerably less scoring than in years past, with a total of just 7.4 runs per contest in 32 games thus far. Can tonight’s starting pitchers help maintain that average?

Lately, Patrick Corbin hasn’t helped in such efforts when pitching in front of the Arizona fans, as he’s been touched for at least four runs in his most recent pair of home starts. Only two other times in Corbin’s career, however, did the left-hander allow four or more runs in three straight starts at Chase Field — once during his nightmarish 2016 campaign, and also to close out 2015 when he was hurt prior to getting Tommy John surgery.

It doesn’t look like it will happen a third time in a row here, as Corbin has clearly looked like an All-Star candidate through the first two months-and-change of 2018. He’s working on career-best marks across the board — 2.87 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 11.57 K/9 and a .186 batting average against. That last number is especially notable because it places him second in the NL in that category, behind only NL Cy Young frontrunner Max Scherzer (.171).

Another reason we should like Corbin to turn his fortune around at Chase Field: Typically, he’s been considerably better at home during his time in the big leagues. We can even compare and contrast such split stats based on the exact same sample size. Corbin has pitched in exactly 76 games each at home and on the road (67 starts apiece for each as well), and his career 3.47 ERA at Chase Field easily bests his 4.56 ERA in away assignments.

And then there’s Joe Musgrove, who hasn’t wasted any time impressing his new teammates since returning from a shoulder injury at the end of May. In fact, in his three starts, he’s 2-1 with a 1.89 ERA, registering 17 K’s compared to five walks in across 19 total innings of work. Is he for real, though?

If you look at the percentages, you might notice that opponents aren’t tagging the 25-year-old too hard, as evidenced by his line-drive rate of just 17.9% on batted balls in play. In turn, his groundball percentage is a desirable 46.4%. He’s also throwing as hard as he ever has in his career, utilizing a fastball that is clocking in at an average of 94.6 MPH. I see Musgrove continuing with his upward trajectory as a result.

Play: UNDER 7.5 (-110)