Sunday’s MLB Over/Under: Castillo, Ross Wrap Up Reds-Padres Series

Sunday’s MLB Over/Under: Castillo, Ross Wrap Up Reds-Padres Series article feature image
Credit:

Charles LeClaire, USA Today Sports

Tough way to see the eight-game winning streak come to an end, as we got the desired quality starting pitching from David Price and Justin Verlander in last night’s Red Sox-Astros Under 7.5 bet. Hopefully we can start a new winning streak today.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 41-20-2, +18.6 units
Yesterday’s Result: Red Sox-Astros Under 7.5, Price vs. Verlander (loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit


Cincinnati Reds @ San Diego Padres | O/U: 7.5
6:10 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Luis Castillo (4-5, 5.49 ERA) vs. Tyson Ross (4-3, 3.29 ERA)

The oddsmakers are severely underrating the two hurlers on the bump this afternoon for Sunday’s series finale between the Reds and Padres.

In Tyson Ross’ nine-year career, he’s been nearly a full run better at home (3.35 ERA) compared to on the road (4.34 ERA), and that trend has been even more extreme during all his seasons with the Padres.

For his career, Ross has strung together an impressive 2.90 ERA and 1.12 WHIP in 43 starts (and nine relief appearances) in San Diego, spanning 286 total innings. In addition, he’s punched out more than a batter per inning in his assignments at Petco as well.

We’ll also like the rhythm that the 31-year-old is in right now. Since a disappointing performance opposite the Nationals on May 7, Ross has pitched into the sixth inning or deeper and allowed three runs or fewer in each of his last four starts. The Reds can be a club that becomes reliant on the long ball but fortunately for this under, Ross has yielded only five home runs this season, including just two — in that start against Washington — over 29.1 home innings.

And then we have Luis Castillo, who I leaned on in his last assignment en route to an under win on Tuesday. While he wasn’t very good in that outing, he wasn’t bad either, displaying signs that he’s rounding back into last year’s standout form, when he recorded a 3.12 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 9.87 K/9 as a rookie.

While it’s been tough sledding in his sophomore campaign, Castillo is at least battling and eating up innings. It feels like he’s on the brink of the dominant showcase that he’s capable of, as evidenced by his increase in strikeouts through the last month. Castillo figures to also benefit from the pitcher-friendly dimensions at Petco Park, as well as a potentially downgraded Padres lineup, being a daygame after a night affair.

Play: UNDER 7.5 (-110)


Editor’s note: The opinion on this game is from the individual writer and is based on his research, analysis and perspective. It is independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.