Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under: Severino, Arrieta Collide in Philadelphia

Tuesday’s MLB Over/Under: Severino, Arrieta Collide in Philadelphia article feature image

We probably deserved better in last night’s Pirates-Mets Under 7.5 bet, as a pair of Luis Guillorme errors prevented the score from being 1-0 deep into the ballgame, when the Pirates bullpen allowed things to get away for the narrow defeat. Let’s just move on to tonight.

Zylbert’s 2018 MLB Over/Under Betting Record: 52-32-2, +16.5 units
Yesterday’s Result: Pirates-Mets Under 7.5, Taillon vs. Lugo (loss)
*Each bet graded as if it were to win 1 unit

 

New York Yankees @ Philadelphia Phillies | O/U: 7.5
7:05 p.m. ET
Probable Pitchers: Luis Severino (11-2, 2.24 ERA) vs. Jake Arrieta (5-5, 3.42 ERA)

Not only did this total open up only a half-run lower than the closing line one night ago — which featured a considerably inferior pitching matchup in the series opener — but it has remained steady at 7.5, giving bettors that extra hook for what could be a showcase of some standout pitching from both sides.

On one side, you have a legitimate American League Cy Young candidate in Severino, who has been outstanding entering his final start in June. He’s tied for first in the AL in wins (11), third in ERA (2.24) and also ranks in the top 10 in the junior circuit in innings pitched (104.2), strikeouts (123), WHIP (0.96) and batting average against (.199).

He may be even more effective than usual this evening, since this is an interleague outing in an NL stadium. Whenever Severino has toed the rubber in an NL park, he’s been stellar, allowing a mere two earned runs over four starts spanning 24.1 total innings. That’s good for a microscopic 0.74 ERA. In addition, he’s recorded a 30/9 K/BB ratio while punching a 1.07 WHIP. As a bonus, the hard-throwing right-hander is 1-for-9 for his career when he’s had to step in the box, managing only a fluky bunt single he pulled off when he was trying to move over runners on first and second (versus the Mets, of course).

It’s possible that Severino’s counterpart, Arrieta, is just as stingy, considering he’ll be in his home digs for this evening’s potential duel between frontline starters. Yes, the former NL Cy Young Award winner has been in a bit of a slump as of late, having been tagged for at least three earned runs in each of his past four outings, but this will be a bounce-back spot for Arrieta.

As has been well-documented, the 10-year veteran has been absolutely tremendous in home starts ever since arriving in the National League five years ago. In fact, throughout his time with the Cubs from 2013-17, Arrieta finished with a considerably better ERA in each season, and it’s been more of the same since joining Philadelphia. He owns a 2.08 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and .185 BAA in seven starts at Citizens Bank Park, easily besting the 5.05 ERA, 1.54 WHIP and .309 BAA he’s posted in seven outings on the road.

Arrieta may also benefit from facing a Yankees lineup that has been on a bit of a downslope as of late, as the Bronx Bombers have plated more than four runs just once in their last five ballgames, scoring 15 times over that span. Add in the fact that slugging catcher Gary Sanchez is now on the disabled list and it could help Arrieta navigate the New York lineup. Overall, it could just take one dominant performance from either starter to pace an under victory.

Play: UNDER 7.5 (-110)

Follow me on Twitter @MattZylbert